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“Could you just tell me if these levels of losses are normal? These multiple month losses?…”

Feedback in:

Hello Sir,

I have read all your books and listened to many of them on top of that. I started trend following in July of 2021 and had a banner month. Since then, I’ve lost 4 out of the last five months to the tune of $14K which is a lot considering it was a $69K account. I have my rules I follow with the same discipline I had in the army. Donchian high/low over the last 20 days reached, enter with a 1% stop loss or 1.5 ATR stop…whichever is less. If I go into profit territory, get out when the price drops/raises 1.5 ATRs. Could you just tell me if these levels of losses are normal? These multiple month losses?


Respectfully,

Name

I don’t know exactly what you are doing or your time frame or what markets you are trading. Can trend following have multiple months of losses? Of course.

Ep. 1040: Ayelet Fishbach Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Ayelet Fishbach
Ayelet Fishbach

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My guest today is Ayelet Fishbach, PhD. She is the Jeffrey Breakenridge Keller Professor of Behavioral Science and Marketing at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and the past president of the Society for the Study of Motivation.

The topic is her book Get It Done: Surprising Lessons from the Science of Motivation.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Motivation and Exercise
  • Exercise and Healthy Eating
  • Why People Don’t Listen
  • Obesity in America
  • Motivation of People
  • New Year’s Resolution
  • Social Media Addiction
  • Realistic and Unrealistic Goals
  • The Illusion of Progress
  • Dreams Research
  • Psychological Roadblocks
  • Choosing Your Goals

Mentions & Resources:

Jump in!

“My biggest challenge is to overcome a 15 year die-hard commitment to value/fundamentals investment appraisal (in private capital markets) and to place reliance (consistently) on an alternative investing principle…”

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

First of all thank you for opening up so much research and information to your World of trend following.

To answer your question:

My biggest challenge is to overcome a 15 year die-hard commitment to value/fundamentals investment appraisal (in private capital markets) and to place reliance (consistently) on an alternative investing principle, particularly when results are going against!

Thanks again and starting to take a look at your programs.

Best regards,

Roland

My best long form stance against your 15 year die-hard commitment to value/fundamentals is my book Trend Following.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“I just wanted to say that I loved the interview of the CEO of Dunkin’ Donuts. That was so inspiring and informative…”

Feedback in:

Mr. Covel, I just wanted to say that I loved the interview of the CEO of Dunkin’ Donuts. That was so inspiring and informative. Nice to see the rebroadcast of the interview of the author of Chicken Soup. Just wanted to wish you a fantastic 2022. I enjoy your podcasts and think we’d have a great conversation over a beer (me) and green tea (you). This past month I moved from Commiefornia and relocated in northern Nevada to benefit my children. Love it here. I admire your move to other side of the Pacific. Good move…

Cheers,

Dave M

Deal!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“He wants to eventually become a billionaire, and he mentioned investing this loan money in bitcoin…”

Feedback in:

Michael,

Good morning. My situation is the following:

My son is a Junior at the [name]. He recently received a $36,000 loan from the Academy at less than 1% interest. He wants to eventually become a billionaire, and he mentioned investing this loan money in bitcoin. I advised against bitcoin, and suggested that we each invest $36k in foreign currency trading as I used to trade FX and understand those markets better than bitcoin. Our mindset is to double our $72k account each year, and perhaps start a fund after we have a proven 10-year track record. We opened a Forex.com demo account several months ago, and we are planning on going live this week.

I came across the name Richard Dennis while reading the Market Wizards a few months ago. In searching for more information on the Turtle Traders, I came across your book The Complete TurtleTrader. I gifted a copy of your book to my son and a copy to myself for Christmas, and we are both excited about having found a system with a track record of producing the exact type of results we are looking to achieve: doubling our money each year.

So, to your question below about the greatest challenge I am facing tied to my trading, I have three questions:

1) Do you think that it is still realistic to shoot for 100% annual returns using this trend following system in today’s marketplace? A lot of what I read on line states that the turtle method would not work so well anymore. If that’s true, I wonder if that is because it has become a crowded trade with too many people employing the same strategy, or because the markets have been choppier and not as trendy as in the 1980s.

2) Do you think one could find enough diversification needed for this trend-following method by only trading 10 currency pairs on the spot market (as opposed to also trading stocks, bonds and commodities)?

3) What are your thoughts on the best time frame for price breakouts to use in today’s environment, specifically in the FX spot market? You cite the 20-day and 55-day time frames on page 72 of your book, and I wonder if a more optimal time frame has been discovered since or tied to today’s environment. One study I read online last night cited a 200-day price breakout as having achieved far superior results when back testing for a diversified portfolio, as opposed to the 20-day or 55-day. I realize that you might not want to reveal any trade secrets if you have discovered a better time frame, though your willingness to share comes through in your book and so I wanted to pose the question. Any thoughts would be much appreciated.

I thank you for your book The Complete TurtleTrader. It came at the perfect time for my son and me. Chapter 5 is a treasure trove and the ideal resource as we put together our system to trade the 10 currency pairs.

Sincerely,
Name

1. High risk trend following can of course have over 100% returns in a year. Every year? No.

2. FX pairs alone is not enough.

3. Trying to chase one magic entry is not where your energy should be. What about exits? Portfolio selection? Money management? There are many issues. Start here and here.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Lets say I draw my trend line and price has been rising for a couple of days off the trend line. How to I decide if I can still take the train?…”

Feedback in:

Hi thanks for taking the time to read this. Lets say I draw my trend line and price has been rising for a couple of days off the trend line. How to I decide if I can still take the train? I know for the $ management I reduce the intended 1st buy of my position as my stop is further down than if I bought on the trend line itself. But even if I manage my risk, no point if the odds of the move not working is higher once off the trend line. Might have more questions but lets see if this is not a robot. PS: I don’t YOLO options on margin with reddit, I trade only my cash in equities ( saved me on my 1st big rookie mistake in 2019) I brought 70K to 330K from October 2020 to mid February 2021 (missed most of the rockets of 2020 as I started full time as a trader after 2 years of prep and went threw the finding my identity and trying them all, while not loosing it all) . But after selling at the top in mid February I ended up coming back in and out and going down to 230k. I little of that is explained by switching from swing to position trading as I finally found the style that went with the life style I wanted, so I guess It takes a tole on the account while the wheel starts turning again. My worst drawdown was like 50% in summer 2020 ( I can hear you all the way in Canada saying how did the kid miss out on all of that) I like my volatility….. Anyways really hope this is not a robot; bigger email than planned.

Thanks again
M

Start here to change all of those bad habits.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

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