Ep. 920: Christian Busch Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Christian Busch
Christian Busch

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Good luck isn’t just chance—it can be learned and leveraged—and The Serendipity Mindset explains how you can use serendipity to make life better at work, at home—everywhere. Many of us believe that the great turning points and opportunities in our lives happen by chance, that they’re out of our control. Often we think that successful people—and successful companies and organizations—are simply luckier than the rest of us. Good fortune—serendipity—just seems to happen to them. Is that true? Or are some people better at creating the conditions for coincidences to arise and taking advantage of them when they do? How can we connect the dots of seemingly random events to improve our lives?

Christian Busch explains that serendipity isn’t about luck in the sense of simple randomness. It’s about seeing links that others don’t, combining these observations in unexpected and strategic ways, and learning how to detect the moments when apparently random or unconnected ideas merge to form new opportunities. Busch explores serendipity from a rational and scientific perspective and argues that there are identifiable approaches we can use to foster the conditions to let serendipity grow.

Drawing from biology, chemistry, management, and information systems, and using examples of people from all walks of life, Busch illustrates how serendipity works and explains how we can train our own serendipity muscle and use it to turn the unexpected into opportunity. Once we understand serendipity, Busch says, we become curators of it, and luck becomes something that no longer just happens to us—it becomes a force that we can grasp, shape, and hone.

Bio: Dr. Christian Busch teaches at New York University (NYU) and the London School of Economics (LSE). At NYU, he directs the Global Economy programme of the Center for Global Affairs.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Serendipity Mindset
  • US Education System
  • Importance of Education System
  • Entrepreneur Mindset
  • Networking
  • Building an Audience

Mentions & Resources:

“I am a committed trend follower and do well when I apply myself but am too easily distracted so am reviewing my portfolio…”

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

The ‘Take action’ prompt did resonate but it was to do more with the knowledge and training I already have and to maximise the benefit of the money already spent on books (including yours), training and services rather than spending any more until I know where my real shortcomings are. I find that virtually every email I receive is trying to take money out of my pocket with free webinars etc giving half the story and offering some other distraction such as systems and training. I am a committed trend follower and do well when I apply myself but am too easily distracted so am reviewing my portfolio, clearing the losers and those winners that are now going against me and will find new rising stocks to buy. I was lucky in March and jumped on the oil down trend so am currently comfortably up but want to make sure I am focused and ready for the chaos that is likely once the economic impact of covid hits, the final step of Brexit and the US election. I love the podcast and do buy books your guests are promoting, although I prefer audio rather than hard copy.

Best regards

Name

First reactions:

  1. What exact sources of material are you perusing?
  2. You don’t sound like you are using trend following as I know it.
  3. My faqs below are good reading.

Jump in.

“I am drawing some small amounts from my retirement savings which is where I am trading my models and would use any trend models…”

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I am a fan of trend trading, your books and your podcast. I’m very interested in your course but want to get a sense as to whether it’s the right fit for me. I suspect it will be very beneficial, but I have a few quick questions. As a background, I am recently retired (at 55) and I have a couple of models I’ve been playing with that backtest well, but who knows whether they will hold up. They are fairly simple and I think robust. They incorporate primarily momentum and volatility and use leverage as drawdowns are small. I am also trading some options strategies for income and using that for my daily expenses. I am drawing some small amounts from my retirement savings which is where I am trading my models and would use any trend models. Obviously, I don’t know if they will hold up over time and I’m always looking for other ideas to augment returns, and or at least diversify strategies.

I guess the 5 questions I have are:

  1. Do you think the type of long term trend trading you are teaching is suitable for a retiree who draws on capital and has a 20-30 year time horizon (hopefully longer but statistically speaking about 25 years)
  2. I’m a little unclear as to whether you are teaching the philosophy of trend trading or if there is a specific system. Or both?
  3. Assuming a system is part of the course, is the system suitable for any asset?
  4. Do you have any material in the course on building a portfolio (e.g. perhaps applying the same system to a group of non correlated assets?)

Thanks… and sorry if it’s a long email

Name

Great questions. Answers here: 1, 2, 3. It’s philosophy + system(s). It includes portfolio selection instruction. Full description.

“The biggest challenge of trading is to simplify one’s thinking…”

Feedback in:

The biggest challenge of trading is to simplify one’s thinking.

Trend Following is deceptively simple – that’s it’s challenge, but also it’s beauty.

I think Steve Jobs said it best:

“Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it’s worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.”

Exactly. Some great podcast episodes that get at the human side.

“Do you have any recommendations for key episodes that should be listened to asap, or episodes that are special to you?…”

Feedback in:

Mr. Covel,

I have recently found your great podcast on Spotify. I’m currently trying to get through as much of your catalogue as I can. Do you have any recommendations for key episodes that should be listened to asap, or episodes that are special to you?
Also, please send me your trend following steps and videos.

Thank you,

Adam R

Ed Seykota #2 interview (trend trader)
Jack Canfield
Ewan Kirk (trend trader)
Martin Lueck (trend trader)
Robert Aumann
Robert Rosenberg
Anders Ericsson
Alison Gopnik

That will keep you busy!

P.S. Also see all of my Charles Faulkner, Larry Hite, Tom Basso and Jerry Parker episodes!