Author: Michael Covel

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I’m definitely attracted to the simplicity of what you’re teaching. My major question is this: You’ve mentioned that day trading is garbage, but if the stock market is fractal, why wouldn’t trend following work on a shorter timeframe? I’ve been following Tim Sykes and Nate Michaud for quite a while now, and both of them do very well with short-term trading.

Thanks Mike, and have a great day!

Trend following is one strategy. Day trading is something else. Fractal or not, two different philosophies, two different strategies and two different sources of alpha.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

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Please enjoy my monologue You’re Really Up Sh** Creek with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

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Hi Michael,

Was thinking about lower time frames.

I know you don’t agree to apply trend following techniques to lower time frames, less than daily but, was thinking about the fact that the markets are fractal (Bill Dreis FWA, etc.).

Considering that being true, what would be the problem to apply a trend following technique (Turtle, FWA, etc.) to lower time frames, for example an hourly chart?

If the fractal idea keeps valid, then the annual results would be monthly results or even weekly results (15% per week, etc).

Do you know if someone studied trend following techniques on lower time frames? And what do you think about that in terms of fractal behavior? Why not use lower time frames to get bigger and faster results?

I really think that, due to the fractal behavior of markets, trend following can be applied to intraday charts as well.

Would like to hear from you the reason why trend following is only for long term trading.

Thank you,
Joao P.

Intraday is horseshit unless you are Citadel, Simons, JPM, etc. You are not them. So, no, I don’t agree. You should find out how you came to have such a wrong view.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

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Michael,

If the pandemic has taught me anything it’s that any serious person cannot put their full faith and trust in the system.

I work in Commercial Real Estate Finance and over the past few months I believe I’m seeing the unraveling of the zero interest rate environment in front of my very eyes. My first 4 years were like shooting fish in a barrel, even during the peak of COVID uncertainty. You just couldn’t miss so long as you focused on the obvious asset classes, but now all of the originators I work for have deals falling out left and right and team revenue targets continue to be downward adjusted. This new reality coupled with the constant stream of Jim Cramer and CNBC that blasts right into our cubicles and I would say things are starting to look pretty bleak. However, I’ve listened to you for a few years now and realize this is simply another trend following opportunity, but I’ve pushed off jumping in because I was always too afraid of not having the perfect system to start.

As I’ve quickly wised up to the fact that this past bull market was largely manipulated, I no longer find myself comfortable sitting back and having Yellen or Powell or Biden or whoever give me a foot massage and tuck me in at night. I’ve been convinced by the research and interviews you’ve provided, and the overall idea of trend following doesn’t seem far fetched whatsoever. Knowing that my system can’t be perfect from the jump was honestly going to start by using the “Rules” outlined in Chapter 5 of The Complete TurtleTrader. Is there any advice you could provide to someone pivoting from typical index fund buy-and-hold to trend following?

Yes. Read here and here.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I have now been reading in your book for the last week (first two chapters). So far I like the book. Especially that the book have started getting me to think about what a trend is, and how I have traded earlier in life. I can recall several deals where I have missed gains in the range 90-200%, because I chickened out a few days before. So at the moment, trading is limited until I am able to put my new trend strategy onto paper and action. This brings me to what my biggest challenge with trading. In general my biggest issue is psychology, emotions and lack of control. So at least I know what I need to work with to improve in the big picture. I will look forward to complete the book, and follow your mini course.

Best Regards
Simon L.

Keep going. Keep digging.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

My guest today is Jim Cullen, founder, CEO, and Portfolio Manager of Schafer Cullen Capital Management. His experience in the investment business spans over 50 years. Prior to founding the firm, Cullen was the Vice President at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette. Previously to Donaldson, Cullen co-managed the New York Research, which specialized in low P/E research. He began his career at Merrill Lynch in 1965 and later worked for the research firm Spencer Trask & Company. He spent four years as a Navy Officer on the aircraft carrier USS Essex after receiving a B.S. in finance from Seton Hall University.

The topic is his book The Case for Long-Term Value Investing.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

• 60 years on Wall Street
• How did Amazon come into existence with Walmart’s dominance?
• October 2008
• Millennials, the stock market, trading, and bitcoin
• The value perspective in Asian countries
• Real estate and Fed tightening

Mentions & Resources:

• Jim Cullen
• The Case for Long-Term Value Investing: A Guide to the Data and Strategies That Drive Stock Market Success
• Schafer Cullen Capital Management
• Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette
• Charles Thomas Munger
• Goldman Sachs
• Benjamin Graham

Listen to this episode:

• Listen to this podcast on iTunes. (Please leave a rating!)
• Listen on Spotify.
• Listen on Stitcher.
• Libysn RSS.
• Download as MP3 by right-clicking here and choosing “save as.”
• Free Video.

Jump in!

Feedback in:

Thank you so much for your podcasts and especially the monologues. I recently learned a good friend of mine got back into some only long markets that he should clearly avoid, and seeing he is only a few years off retirement all the more so to avoid. When it comes to horse racing he can analyse the form, trainers and make smart bets based on a decent risk/reward and win rate – this he understands. However, when it comes to the markets his mind has gone off grid and he is guided by pundits, news, and “so called” experts. I tried to explain that every “expert” you ask will give you a different opinion. And it comes to the only information that is subjective, accurate, and relevant – price. Long story short I will put your books into his hand (in person) and say read! And also refer him to your site. In regard to your monologues, I loved the “open mouthed kiss” from the Fed, the “Foot massage” from Janet Yellen. Take it one further — what do we have left? The “Neck rub” from (whoever), the “spinal realignment’ from (whoever) Here is the ultimate rub, what about the Pottery wheel scene from the movie ‘Ghost’ Man I love your work.

Cheers,
Aaron H.

Thanks!

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.