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“I have found a secret door to success and I’m sure it’s a secret as so few people do it…”

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I have found a secret door to success and I’m sure it’s a secret as so few people do it – hard work under the guidance of a professional (pit tested) trader.

Also, people say that trading is a get rich scheme and I agree, If I can be profitable with 3-4 years study (several thousand hours) I think that’s pretty quick, certainly no longer than any other professional. But I guess I don’t think like 90% of traders.

Your article was interesting. If we ever meet I’ll tell you about the Ponzi scheme that happened in my old career! It was ridiculous.

Cheers,
Jason

Ok!


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The $3.3 billion “sorry”

Most people don’t want a system. They want a savior. They want a shortcut that bypasses risk.

In 2018, PlusToken launched. It was a “smart crypto wallet.” The pitch? Deposit your Bitcoin. Buy their PLUS token. Watch 30% monthly returns roll in from “arbitrage.”

It was a high-tech veneer over a primitive Ponzi. 3 million people bought the story. By 2019, the music stopped.

The founders didn’t just vanish. They left a message on the app: “Sorry, we have run.”

That’s the most honest thing a scammer ever said. It’s the ultimate price signal for the delusional.

The Lie People Needed

PlusToken was a masterclass in social engineering. They didn’t just stay online. They ran workshops. They bought billboards in supermarkets. They created a hierarchy of greed. Titles like “Big Boy” and “Great God.”

The numbers are staggering.

180,000 BTC.
6.4 million ETH.
Total haul north of $3 billion.
None of it was traded. None of it was mined. It was new money paying old money. When the Chinese police finally moved, they seized $4.2 billion in assets. That money went to the national treasury. Not the victims.

The victims ignored the most fundamental law of the markets: If you don’t know where the yield is coming from, you are the yield.

Stories vs. Systems

Why did 3 million people buy in? They were focused on the forecast. 30% monthly gains. They were seduced by a future that hadn’t happened yet.

Trend following is the opposite. We don’t care about the “Great God” or the slick marketing. We care about price.

Price is the only truth. Everything else is a story told by someone trying to sell you something.

The market promises nothing. No guarantees. No safety. Only probabilities. A trend follower accepts that risk is the entry fee. We don’t predict. We react.

When PlusToken “ran,” the internal price didn’t matter because the exit was blocked. In a real market, when the trend breaks, you exit. You don’t wait for an explanation. You follow the system. You cut the loss.

Greed Makes You Blind

The founders didn’t trade anything. They dumped the money.

Thousands of tiny pieces. Through mixers. Through peel chains. The selling pressure was so massive it pushed Bitcoin down in late 2019.

The very people who thought they were “investing” were actually funding the heavy selling that crushed their own assets. They were blinded by social proof. Their friends were “making money,” so they assumed the system worked. They mistook a rising balance on a screen for wealth.

That is the “Big Boy” trap. The belief that you found a secret door to wealth that doesn’t require discipline or the acceptance of loss.

The 3 million people who lost everything didn’t have a trading problem. They had a philosophical problem. They believed in a “smart wallet” instead of a smart process.

The lesson is simple. Systems beat stories. Price beats promises.

The moment you believe in a savior instead of a system, you become the exit liquidity.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“I have made several investments with Trend Following funds including Mulvaney and…”

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Michael,

Good morning. I listen to your podcast and have begun reading your Trend Following book. I have made several investments with Trend Following funds including Mulvaney and Bowmoor. I am looking to add several additional funds to my portfolio. Do you by any chance have a list you share of other funds that you respect that are available to individual investors? Thanks in advance for any assistance you are able to provide. I enjoy your show!

My books and podcasts are filled with ideas. No list.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“I now run a rules-based trend following program…”

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Michael,

Between Trend Following, Trend Commandments, and The Complete TurtleTrader, you made something uncomfortably clear to me: as a wealth management advisor at [name], I’ve spent years helping clients play a game that was never designed for the kind of returns systematic trend following has demonstrated across a century of market history. That realization didn’t just change how I think about markets — it changed what I’m building.

I now run a rules-based trend following program in live validation across 41 diversified futures markets — equity indices, fixed income, currencies, energies, metals, agriculture, softs, and livestock.

The architecture sits between classic Donchian breakout and the more filtered approaches of second-generation CTAs. Entries require a defined consolidation range to break, then directional confirmation before a position opens. Risk is sized at 1% of equity per trade via ATR, with graduated drawdown circuit breakers scaling exposure down as equity declines and a hard halt at 35%. Sector concentration caps and a forced MAE exit at 2% of NAV complete the framework.

Backtested on Norgate continuous contract data, 2007–2024:

CAGR: 10.95%
Sharpe: 1.12
Calmar: 2.28
Max Drawdown: -4.79%
Win Rate: 46% / Avg W/L: 6.45x

The one question I’d value your perspective on — having spoken with virtually every major trend following manager alive — is this: does this profile reflect a genuine edge, or does it look like a backtest that got fortunate on the 2008–2022 macro regime?

I’m not asking you to review code or strategy specifics. I’m asking whether this structure passes the pattern recognition of someone who has seen what real trend-following looks like over time — and what separates the managers who survive the hard years from those who don’t.

I’m an aspiring fund manager building this for institutional deployment, in a corner of the industry where people who look like me are rare. That context shapes why the rigor matters as much to me as the returns.

I’d welcome even a brief reply.

Respectfully,
[name]

Thanks for the nice words. Your results show a very small drawdown?


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Ep. 1384: Daniel Coyle Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Daniel Coyle
Daniel Coyle

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

My guest today is Daniel Coyle. He is an author whose work explores how people and groups grow, perform, and thrive. He combines immersive field reporting with behavioral science to create practical frameworks for building skill, culture, and meaningful connection.

The topic is his book Flourish: The Art of Building Meaning Joy and Fulfillment.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Purpose vs success and hollow achievement
  • Flourishing as joyful meaningful growth
  • Complexity vs complicated systems thinking
  • Shared improvement and community over self improvement
  • AI impact and human connection revival

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

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“I was following silly monkeys instead of smart individuals…”

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Hi Michael,

I’m looking forward to reading your trend following book and must say your style of writing is intriguing.

My style of trading has been monkey see monkey do. Unfortunately I was following silly monkeys instead of smart individuals. I lost a nice inheritance trading options thinking I knew something when the market proved I didn’t.

Now, I am back to my original foray into the market by using equity option spreads and treading water.

At 73 I have very little money to invest and less time to make it.

Any help will be most appreciated.

Sincerely,
Brown

My book — best first step!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Do you think your course would still provide significant additional value…”

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I hope you’re doing well.

I’ve been a big big fan of your work for quite a while now. I’ve read most of your books and recently started going through your podcast episodes, which I’ve really been enjoying. Your approach to trend following has had a major influence on how I think about markets and risk.

At this point, I feel like I have a solid grasp of the core concepts you teach. I also understand the importance of diversification across markets, keeping correlation low, and focusing on long-term expectancy rather than individual trade outcomes. Concepts like position sizing as the real edge, asymmetry of returns, and the psychological discipline required to stick with a system through drawdowns are all things I actively incorporate.

That said, I’m at a stage where I’m trying to figure out whether going deeper, specifically through your course, would meaningfully improve my results, or whether I’m already covering most of the practical ground through your books and podcast.

So I wanted to ask you directly: based on what I’ve described, do you think your course would still provide significant additional value? In particular, does it go beyond the conceptual framework into more detailed implementation, nuances, or things that aren’t fully captured in your published material?

I really respect your work, so I figured it made sense to ask you honestly before making the investment.

Thanks again for everything you’ve put out over the years. It’s been incredibly helpful.

Best regards,
Mike A.

Short answer, I can’t say. You’re writing to me — so you’re missing something in your mind. You might need some confirmation on an issue or some support from me. It sounds like you know a lot, but you feel like you’re missing something?


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.