Author: Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi, thank you for quick reply.

I have only been involved in trading on part time basis, due to lack of proper capital, until just now that is.

I have been following markets since mid 80s. In 200-2002 I was partner in a company trying to create a trading robot. Undercapitalized and too early we had to file for banckrupcy after only a short time.

After having worked elsewhere I’m ready to have a new go at it. I know it is possible; if I can control my emotions and stay true to my model of technical analysis. Also I have a better capital base 200 000 USD. Trading CFD allows me to expose small fractions of the total, which again keeps it easier to control risk.

Nevertheless, I have a hard time cutting the loss and riding the profit. I tend to overtrade, not out of anger or attempting to have revenge, but to poor discipline and patience. Thus my win/lose ratio is around 2/3 of my trades are losing ones. With only 1/3 winning trades I’m in a positive range, profit wise. All I have to do is to be more patient, make fewer trades. Also develop a stomach for losing ones; making sure I don’t cut a loss right before the market turn the way I assumed when entering it.

I do this all allone. Subscribing to a service that I can “trade along with” might help me turn the situation mentioned above around. Higher profit in each profitable trade, fewer losing ones, turning win/lose ratio more to 50/50, maybe even reverse it towards 2/3 wins / 1/3 losses. A steady consistent period with such development will probably strengthen my mental ability to larger positions thus better results.

I basically trade commodities, with a special preference for the exotic ones… KC and CC in particular. GL also. I find CL very difficult, in my opinion only suitable for day trading.

Hope this service might be what I’m looking for.

Thanks,
Berger

I can help. 100%.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Warren Buffett went on CNBC this month and said what he has been saying for sixty years. He cannot find much worth buying. Berkshire is sitting on close to four hundred billion dollars in cash. His line was blunt: “It’s tough to find values when everybody is preferring gambling.”

Buffett has long described the market as a church with a casino attached. The church is where patient investors wait for a fair price on a good business. The casino is where everyone else piles in to bet on the next hot thing. In his eyes the casino has taken over, so he does what he has always done. He waits. He may wait years. By his own count, only a handful of years in his long life were what he calls juicy.

Understand something. Buffett is not wrong. His discipline is real and his record is beyond argument. If you have his temperament, his time horizon, and a few hundred billion to sit on while you wait, go do exactly what he does. But most people reading this do not have any of those three things, and here is the trap. They admire Buffett, they try to copy the find-value-and-wait part, and they end up doing neither. They cannot value a business the way he can, so they guess. Then they cannot sit still, so they gamble. They wind up in the casino wearing church clothes.

There is a third door, and it is the one I have spent my life on. The trend follower does not sit in the church calculating what a business is truly worth. He does not sit in the casino betting on stories. He watches price and he follows it. He does not need to know what anything is worth. He needs to know which way it is moving and whether he is on the right side of the move. When price trends, he is in. When it turns, he is out. Value never enters the conversation.

That is the part worth taking into your own trading. Buffett’s method asks you to be right about worth and patient beyond belief. Trend following asks you to be honest about price and disciplined about risk. One of those is a temperament you are mostly born with. The other is a process you can learn and repeat, and it is the process we build with people inside Trend Following Mastery. You will never out-Buffett Buffett. You do not have to. You can follow price instead.

So when the smartest value investor alive says he cannot find anything to buy, do not take it as a cue to freeze or to gamble. Take it as a reminder that his game is not the only game and his door is not the only door. The trend does not require you to know what a thing is worth. It asks you to pay attention and to act on a rule instead of a feeling. Buffett will keep waiting in the church. The crowd will keep losing in the casino. You have a third option. Use it.

Stay systematic.

P.S. Keeping what a trend hands you is a skill, not a personality, and the ​Trend Following Mastery​ course teaches the entry, the exit, and the risk discipline that holds up when the easy money stops. The ​Bull, Bear & Black Swan Report​ keeps that same thinking in front of you every month, research instead of prediction.

Source: Warren Buffett, CNBC “Squawk Box,” July 2026.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Trend Following Is Everywhere with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Listen to this episode:

• Listen to this podcast on iTunes. (Please leave a rating!)
• Listen on Spotify.
• Libysn RSS.
• Download as MP3 by right-clicking here and choosing “save as.”
• Free Video.

Jump in!

For the first half of this year, if you owned anything with a chip in it, you were a genius. Semiconductors ran more than eighty percent. Nvidia, the whole AI complex, Korea and Taiwan along for the ride. People who had never held a position through a real drawdown were posting screenshots and calling themselves traders. The money was easy, and easy money has a way of feeling like skill.

Then the tape turned. The chip names rolled over hard. Taiwan Semiconductor beat its numbers and fell anyway. Micron dropped. The Nasdaq took the brunt of it while the crowd that felt so smart in the spring started asking what happened. Here is what happened. The trend paused, and a bull market stopped doing their thinking for them.

I want you to hear this, because it is the most expensive lesson in the business and most people pay for it more than once. In a strong uptrend, everybody makes money. The disciplined trader and the reckless one get the same green screen. That is the moment the reckless one decides he is a genius, sizes up, drops his stops, and stops respecting risk. The trend was carrying him the whole time. He mistook the escalator for his own two legs.

The reversal is where the bill comes due. When price turns, the trader who confused luck with skill has no plan, because he never needed one on the way up. He holds. He averages down. He repeats the story that made him money last quarter. And he gives it all back, and then some.

The trend follower runs the other way. He assumes none of the gains were his idea. He knows the trend did the work, so when the trend breaks he does not argue with it. His exit was written before he ever entered. He is out with his profits while the geniuses are still explaining why the chip story is intact.

This is the part you can learn, and it is the whole point of a system. A process does not care how smart you felt in June. It sizes the position the same way in a boom and a bust. It exits on price, not on pride. Taking the ego out of the loop is not a limitation. It is the edge. It is what we build with people inside Trend Following Mastery, because the difference between keeping this year’s gains and handing them back is almost never intelligence. It is discipline you decided on in advance.

So take this into your own trading, wherever you are in the journey. When you are winning, ask an honest question. Is this me, or is this the market? Then act as if the answer is the market, because most of the time it is. Keep your stops. Keep your sizing boring. Let the trend be the genius, and make sure you have a plan for the day it quits.

The escalator runs until it does not. Know which step you are getting off on.

Stay systematic.

P.S. Keeping what a trend hands you is a skill, not a personality, and the ​Trend Following Mastery​ course teaches the entry, the exit, and the risk discipline that holds up when the easy money stops. The ​Bull, Bear & Black Swan Report​ keeps that same thinking in front of you every month, research instead of prediction.

Source: Semiconductor and AI-sector market action, mid-July 2026, as reported across financial media.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

My guest today is Steve Burns. He is the founder of New Trader U in 2011. He started investing in 1993, and trading his own accounts in 1995. It was love at first trade. A natural teacher with a gift for cutting through the bull and making complex ideas simple. He offers an extensive blog resource with thousands of original articles, as well as online courses and best-selling books covering a variety of topics.

The topics are AI and trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

• AI as a business and productivity multiplier
• AI tools for writing, research, coding, and content creation
• Trend following and reactive price action trading
• Brand building through consistency and social media
• Market psychology, parabolic moves, and risk management

Mentions & Resources:

• Steve Burns on X
• New Trader Rich Trader

Listen to this episode:

• Listen to this podcast on iTunes. (Please leave a rating!)
• Listen on Spotify.
• Libysn RSS.
• Download as MP3 by right-clicking here and choosing “save as.”
• Free Video.

Jump in!

Feedback in:

Your email is at the same time compelling and nebulous. What are you selling and why should I buy whatever you’re selling?

I’m an open book.

If you’re curious, you’ll dig around.

If not, ok.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

Michael,

I recently turned 55 and have always been fascinated by the markets. Trading appeals to me because I am a strong believer in mathematics, probabilities, and systems-based decision-making.

Over the years, I have built a successful career in real estate and retail businesses, and my long-term goal is to generate income through trading as I transition away from traditional business activities and into retirement.

I have been involved in the markets for many years, primarily as a long-term buy-and-hold investor. Over the past five years, however, I have devoted significant time to learning options trading and swing trading. While I believe I have developed a solid understanding of market behavior, trading systems, and risk management, my biggest challenges have been discipline and strategy hopping.

I enjoy being active and engaged, which can make it difficult to sit on my hands and allow a proven process to play out. As a result, I have been working hard to simplify my approach and become more systematic.
Recently, I have been using AI tools to help me develop trading rules, structure my decision-making process, and track performance metrics so I can determine whether I truly have an edge and understand my expectancy over a large sample of trades.

I have always been interested in trend-following approaches such as the Turtle Trading system. One of the primary scans I follow in Thinkorswim tracks stocks making new 20-day highs, and I continue to study breakout and momentum-based strategies. My current focus is on simplifying my trading, reducing unnecessary complexity, and building a repeatable process that I can confidently follow for years to come.

I look forward to learning more about your approach, what you offer, and whether it may fit my goals as I continue developing as a trader.

Thank you,
Vince G.

Information sent!

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.