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Hi Michael,
Here to test (as requested) to see if you read these replies!
Hmm, how to reply in 10K words or less.
I’m a retired software exec (led engineering divisions at IBM, AT&T Labs and Salesforce), that was about to buy-in as a managing partner in a wealth management firm but pulled out before the balloon payment was due. I did manage to get a few SEC licenses at the time though. So I’m probably more techfin than fintech but definitely feel I have a background in both. This transition was back in 2009 and since, I’ve been primarily trying to manage my market assets. I’ve tried numerous swing trading strategies, spent quite a bit of money working with a trader from the Chicago pits, etc. I’ve also spent some time exchanging emails with the fund managers of some of these ETFs/systems.
After numerous attempts at trying to develop my own algorithms (can’t help it given my background) and using virtually every yahoo finance and google finance macro/function option available, I decided to focus my efforts on just using the new “innovative” ETFs that focus on smart beta/momentum/trend following/tactical allocation.
Most of these ETFs have been complete duds and have underperformed the indices (some significantly so). Sometimes the issue is portfolio construction, other times it’s laggy exit/re-entry algorithms. Some of them are somewhat simplistic, others are quite complicated (one set of ETFs utilizing AI has over 200K software LOC and the last of these ETFs are in the process of liquidation due to extremely poor performance and dwindling AUM). Some are now also incorporating long reductions when the underlying benchmark reaches extreme overbought conditions, expecting a mean reversion. Some are geared to slow exit and faster re-entry to mirror the history that the market is in an uptrend 70-75% of the time.
I’m currently positioned in maybe 15 of these types of ETFs and probably have at one point or another, utilized 15-20 others. So I’m an expert in the field, I got to your site as one of my positions is in Jerry’s new TFPN ETF, which led me to researching the Turtles.
So my biggest challenge is in either finding (or developing) a trend algorithm, or finding a set of trend/tactical allocation ETFs, that can both, consistently, minimize drawdowns, while at the same time not being a complete drag on the portfolio during the more typical uptrends.
Looking forward to researching the info on your website.
Cheers,
Mike
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