It challenges me to net out they symptoms of my trading limitations, but I’m afraid I’ll still need too many words because if I could define my problems succinctly, presumably I could solve them. After being at it for six years, I’ll say I try to identify Supply and Demand levels on Hourly and 5 minute charts and then compare Slow Stochastic momentum and Hull Moving average slopes on Weekly, Daily, and Hourly charts and look for long entries into pull-backs into the Demand Zones [or shorts in the Supply Zones] I found on the hourly and 5 minute mark-ups. Recently with the Tweet-caused dip of 12/2 through 12/9 or so, I could see several FAANGS drop into Demand Zones so went long using a synthetic Risk Reversal and profited during the next 2 weeks. There was another market dip 12/30 and 12/31 for profit during the following 2 weeks. But If I overstay, as I have with options expiring 12/31, my longs suffer with the pull back unless AMZN recovers. My method for identifying Trend Direction is by having all three time frames [Week, Day, Hour] agree, or maybe have the hourly leading up from Over-Sold for potential recovery of Day and Hour at Over-Sold lows. I was using information from a Trend Trading group which got whipsawed in the consolidation last June, July, August and I lost by just following their [name], so started looking for a method with better stats. I have two big problems:
1. Identifying Direction consistently for long or short Risk Reversals on 2 to 4 week duration.
2. Discipline to apply rules consistently plus market awareness to observe accurately the difference between a U-Turn short in direction versus a pull-back into a Demand Zone for a continuation long. [And the complimentary direction for short side.]
I bought your Little Book from Amazon after hearing your interview podcast with Tom Basso someone referred me to, but haven’t received it yet. Sorry I didn’t buy it from your site!
Thanks for thinking of me, but since you mention Tom Basso let me say you don’t sound like Tom.
I would cut your losses and leave the strategy you describe ASAP.