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“Did I understand something wrong?”

A recent exchange:

Hi Michael,

I back tested a version of Donchian channel trading with parameters 20/20 weekly (only going long) on some Brazilian stocks, mid caps.

I ended up loosing (in the test) during all 2018 and was told that I needed to be comfortable with that. While I know that not every trade might be a winner, I believe the majority should be, at least 60%. For me it’s not acceptable to lose a whole year which was a bad performing year. A system must work in up- and downwards markets which this system naturally doesn’t (it only goes long).

I have not yet found a system that provides positive returns on a regular basis. This is my challenge.


Your system?

1. Too short term.

2. Diversification not there.

3. Risk management?

Hi Mike,

Thanks for your short assessment. Point 2, I understand fully. To bet on Brazilian stocks only is silly as they tend to go quite uniformly, right? Point 1, I do not understand. As I read, Turtle, the original, is [this wise?].

Best regards,


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