“People view all of these people as massive risk-takers, and when you actually sit down and talk to these guys, you realise they are expert risk mitigators. I think it’s very easy to come to the mistaken conclusion in business, for example, that you only win big if you bet the farm. And in fact, when I talk to some of these companies here in Silicon Valley for instance that have become worth billions and billions of dollars… in my experience, in no cases have they bet the farm. They have evaluated the downside – they’ve tried to measure the maximum allowable downside – they know not only their bet and their bet size, but when they’re going to fold. They have an exit strategy for minimizing or capping losses… I remember hearing an expression, I don’t know who to attribute this to, but it’s like ‘If you cap your downside, the upside takes care of itself’… if you take enough shots and you’ve constantly capped your downside, if you have a couple of outliers that give you disproportionate upside–in the long run, you’re going to average out ahead and beat most people.”
Indeed. Trend following.
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