I am reading this book titled “The Hard Thing about Hard Things” and came across the passage below and I instantly thought of you. It starts on page 51 in the book. In reference to looking at companies to acquire:
Surprisingly, among the four existing network automation players, the company that we thought had the best product architecture, Rendition Networks, had the lowest revenues. This made some of our business people skeptical of our technical evaluation. However, if I’d learned anything it was that conventional wisdom had nothing to do with the truth and the efficient market hypothesis was deceptive. How else could one explain Opsware trading at half of the cash we had in the bank when we had a $20 million a year contract and fifty of the smartest engineers in the world? No, markets weren’t “efficient” at finding the truth; they were just very efficient at converging on a conclusion–often the wrong conclusion.
Enjoy and keep up with the great podcasts!
Thanks! My preface here (PDF) makes the case too.