From Psychology of the Stock Market (1912), one year before the Federal Reserve System was established, the behavioral school comes into focus:
“The psychological aspects of speculation may be considered from two points of view, equally important. One question is: “What effect do varying mental attitudes of the public have upon the course of prices?” “How is the character of the market influenced by psychological conditions?” A second consideration is: “How does the mental attitude of the individual trader affect his chances of success?” To what extent, and how, can he overcome the obstacles placed in his pathway by his own hopes and fears, his timidities and his obstinacies?”
This wisdom is clean, clear, and instantly true for those awake.
These days, however, speculation is positioned as a pejorative among the intelligentsia. While I enjoy Oliver Stone’s outsider status, his film Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (2010) paints speculation quite differently, as his film’s main character Gordon Gecko profanes, “The mother of all evil is speculation.”
If you share Gecko’s belief–retire now.
Note: My newest book dives deeper.