Trend Following Feedback: Cracking the Code

Feedback in:


I recently bought a copy of your book, Trend Following, which led me to your website and your podcasts. I stumbled across the concept of trend following several months ago when binging on the web trying to learn everything I could about investing, stocks, trading strategy, etc. I finally took some time to really start thinking about my IRA and how disappointing it was to feel like I had to trust blindly in the mutual fund recommendations from my financial advisor in order to have any hope of ever having enough money to retire or live the way I want to. I am career military, and never really had a ton of extra cash to dump into the Roth or to save, so the older I got the more I started to think how unprepared I am for retirement. I found a trend follower on the web who had a podcast and website (not you yet) which introduced me to the idea, and from there I started to follow his daily signals and try to “crack his code” using excel and downloading historical data in an attempt to develop my own system. He uses 20 day highs/lows for entry, 10 day lows/highs for exit, and an ATR based stop. This started me down a rabbit hole trying out a ton of variations of entries/exits, etc on whatever stock or ETF I thought was a viable candidate to try to find the most profitable system for each equity. What I was missing was the fundamental concepts and theoretical discussion that you provide in your book. Now I am focused on finding a robust long term trend following system to apply to any market/stock/etf using the probability and trade results distribution you illustrated in your book. I am super motivated to pursue trend following until I figure it all out. I consider myself as having above average intelligence and my Asperger’s gives me the laser focus and diligence (or stubbornness according to my wife) to put in the work to develop it and the discipline to follow it. I am currently looking at strategies using ATR, moving averages, and price highs/lows to define price breakouts, but could be off track. I don’t have any of the big trading system software packages, but I know with enough time and patience I will find the results I am looking for. I would certainly appreciate the guidance and DVD you promise to send in your podcast. I know you’re not gonna hand me all the answers on a silver platter, but I’ll take what you are offering, as every insight I can get I will take. Thanks for your help and for laboring through the long letter, take care.

Very Respectfully,

Great feedback. Motivation for everyone. Video on the way!