Insch Capital Management SA gives some trend following food for thought:
The bell tolls. The death of trend following has been announced. The grave has been dug and the obituary has been published. Dust to dust…
The mourners are gathered by the graveside. Tear reddened eyes distinguish the truly saddened from the less saddened who smirk to themselves in their familiar “I told you so” way. (At last! A prediction come true!)
This is a painfully sad affair. Trend following is dead. Again.
Cheer up! Our suspicion is that trend following is not dead. Our suspicion is that no resurrection is required.
This suspicion is not based on a judgment, a fundamental view or (even worse) a prediction from a besuited soothsayer. It is based on the evidence of the numbers. The statistical evidence is of continued life, not the eternal darkness of death.