Lucky Survivors!

A critic has been on here recently with the argument, and I paraphrase, “trend followers are lucky survivors who were flipping coins with terrible Sharpe ratios who will soon blowup.”

His last post:

I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again. Risk is beta. Risk is the chance that you won’t meet your investment goals. The only way to quantify that in a portfolio is to use the long term variability in returns. You say Sharpe is bullshit because it penalizes good volatility, but the Sortino ratio fixes that. The Sortinos of trend followers are terrible. What else do I need to say?

This has been beat into the ground, but readers are free to comment. You too Geetesh Bhardwaj.

Note: one more post came in again after seeing above:

Let me guess Covel you had to look up Sortino ratio which is why you linked to it, right? My favorite part is that you won’t post what I write because you know it is entirely fact based and proves your trend following beliefs 100% wrong.

I do love it when the crazies think they have invalidated trend following technique and performance data. I saw these exact same accusations 15 years ago.

The Author