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Seykota on Trends

Ed Seykota on his web site offers insight into “trends”:

“All methods of defining trends compare various combinations of historical price points. All trends are historical, none are in the present. There is no way to determine the current trend, or even define what current trend might mean; we can only determine historical trends. The only way to measure a now-trend (one entirely in the moment of now) would be to take two points, both in the now and compute their difference. Motion, velocity and trend do not exist in the now. They do not appear in snapshots. Trend does not exist in the now and the phrase, “the trend” has no inherent meaning. When we speak of trends, we are speaking, necessarily, from some or another view of history. There is no such thing as a current trend. When we speak of trends we are necessarily projecting our own definitions.”

Boom.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Risk is like that. You stamp it out in one place, and suddenly it appears somewhere else.”

A Meditation on Risk appears in Fortune magazine:

Risk is like that. You stamp it out in one place, and suddenly it appears somewhere else. Bounteous evidence of this phenomenon can be found in finance. Hedge funds, for instance, are judged by their risk-adjusted performance. They adopt trading strategies that are likely to make money regardless of whether the overall market is rising or falling—betting, say, that similar securities will converge in price. Because there are so many funds doing the same thing, such trades are seldom very profitable. So to get a decent return, funds leverage their bets with borrowed money. The result is an investment vehicle that looks less risky—that is, less volatile—than a standard mutual fund but is in fact at far greater risk of blowing up if its trades go sour and its lenders want their money back. That’s what happened at Long-Term Capital Management, the famous hedge fund that collapsed in 1998.

More.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Van Tharp Wisdom on the Michael Covel Trend Following Podcast

Dr. Van K. Tharp speaks to a “state of mind”:

“Many traders start out using a state of mind that focuses on “having.” Rather than focus on how to trade in concert with the markets, they are obsessed with profits, and what they can purchase with those profits. The main goal is to make money, money that can be used to purchase objects of desire, such as a shiny red sports car, a spacious, luxurious home, or a large wardrobe of fine clothes. They believe that great financial success will be the solution to all their problems. Trading isn’t just a job; it’s their salvation. Although many traders are motivated by money, there’s a downside to focusing on what you can have as a result of your profits. When traders focus solely on accumulating wealth, on “having,” they tend to act greedy and may take risks in an effort to win. There is a blind and unrealistic focus on trading at a high level of performance. Unless they trade at a high level of performance, they can’t possibly “have” what they desire. But a novice trader can’t achieve a high level of performance, and so, there is a mismatch between skills and goals. Traders in a “having” state of mind often feel frustrated that their trading efforts fall short of their expectations. And when they feel frustrated, they have difficulty concentrating on their ongoing experience. They tend to make trading errors, which intensify their feelings of anger and frustration. In addition, they are tempted to give up easily and avoid putting in their best effort. They tend to think, “Why should l even try? I’ll never achieve the level of success I desire.” At some point, a trader’s state of mind moves from “having” to “doing.” In a “doing” state of mind, a trader focuses on learning trading methods, and on when these methods work and when they don’t. According to Dr. Tharp, however, traders in the “doing” state of mind still tend to focus on performance issues. They ask the question, “What can this trading method do for me?” They are concerned with how the method can make them rich. Rather than become engaged with the markets, trading in the “doing” state of mind is about evaluating the method, wondering if it is “working.” Trading, however, is not a simple matter of choosing a particular method and arbitrarily applying it. Becoming a winning trader requires honing your trading skills. It is vital that you develop your intuition by trading with a variety of methods under a wide range of market conditions, and finding ways that the proper method dovetails with optimal market conditions. Although it doesn’t tend to lead to enduring profitability, trading in a “doing” state of mind is a vital step on the way to mastery of the markets. During this stage, you gain the experience you need to trade intuitively and in a peak performance mindset. The ultimate state of mind for profitable trading is the “being” state of mind. Rather than focusing on outcomes, a trader in the “being” state of mind is fully in tune with the markets. He or she trades in synchrony with the market action. A firm commitment is made to trading the market and accepting it on its own terms. When a trader works to trade in the moment, he or she intuitively sees profitable setups and effortlessly trades them. It may not happen over night, but with enough practice and experience, you can trade with a “being” state of mind.”

Listen to Van Tharp on my podcast.

Earl Weaver: Moneyball and the Three Run Home Run Has Always Been the Key

From the Washington Post today comes a story about the “bunt debate” in baseball:


Earl Weaver

“As a future Hall of Fame outfielder in Baltimore, Robinson played for four seasons under Manager Earl Weaver (himself a Hall of Famer), who is widely considered the father of the anti-bunt movement. In his book, “Weaver On Strategy,” the legendary skipper lists his “laws” of managing, the fourth of which is, “Your most precious possessions on offense are your 27 outs.” Weaver’s Fifth Law is a corollary: “If you play for one run, that’s all you’ll get.” “I hated playing for one run,” Weaver said recently. “But I didn’t always take my own advice. I never bunted with Frank Robinson or Boog Powell or Eddie Murray at the plate, of course. But I did it with [Mark] Belanger and [Paul] Blair, two real good players. I think I bunted them too much.”

Isn’t that a great line? Play for one run and that’s all you will get. There it is in black and white the “secret” to baseball or trading success. I also used a great line about Earl Weaver in my book Trend Following:

“Earl Weaver designed his offenses to maximize the chance of a three-run homer. He didn’t bunt, and he had a special taste for guys who got on base and guys who hit home runs.”

Trend following is always about the home runs. Think there is more safety in hitting singles (or short-term trading’s small gains), think again.