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Earl Weaver: Moneyball and the Three Run Home Run Has Always Been the Key

From the Washington Post today comes a story about the “bunt debate” in baseball:

Earl Weaver

“As a future Hall of Fame outfielder in Baltimore, Robinson played for four seasons under Manager Earl Weaver (himself a Hall of Famer), who is widely considered the father of the anti-bunt movement. In his book, “Weaver On Strategy,” the legendary skipper lists his “laws” of managing, the fourth of which is, “Your most precious possessions on offense are your 27 outs.” Weaver’s Fifth Law is a corollary: “If you play for one run, that’s all you’ll get.” “I hated playing for one run,” Weaver said recently. “But I didn’t always take my own advice. I never bunted with Frank Robinson or Boog Powell or Eddie Murray at the plate, of course. But I did it with [Mark] Belanger and [Paul] Blair, two real good players. I think I bunted them too much.”

Isn’t that a great line? Play for one run and that’s all you will get. There it is in black and white the “secret” to baseball or trading success. I also used a great line about Earl Weaver in my book Trend Following:

“Earl Weaver designed his offenses to maximize the chance of a three-run homer. He didn’t bunt, and he had a special taste for guys who got on base and guys who hit home runs.”

Trend following is always about the home runs. Think there is more safety in hitting singles (or short-term trading’s small gains), think again.

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