Let’s imagine that you and a friend have spent the afternoon playing your favorite board game, and now, at the end of the game, you are chatting about this and that. Something your friend says leads you to make a friendly wager: that with one roll of the die from the game, you will get a 6. Straight odds are one in six, a 16 percent probability. But then suppose your friend rolls the die, quickly covers it with her hand, and takes a peek. “I can tell you this much,” she says; “it’s an even number.” Now you have new information and your odds change dramatically to one in three, a 33 percent probability. While you are considering whether to change your bet, your friend teasingly adds: “And it’s not a 4.” With this additional bit of information, your odds have changed again, to one in two, a 50 percent probability. With this very simple example, you have performed a Bayesian analysis. Each new piece of information affected the original probability, and that is Bayesian [updating].
From Daniel Kahneman’s 2011 Google Talk on the promotional tour for Thinking Fast And Slow:
“Intuitive expertise is not going to develop in a chaotic universe… I personally do not believe that stock pickers can develop intuition… there isn’t enough regularity in what’s going to happen to prices for intuitions to develop. When there are marginal situations where there is some predictability but poor, formulas do better than individuals… that is the domain where formulas beat individuals regularly is the domain of fairly low predictability, because when there are weak cues, people are not very good at picking them up and are not good at using them consistently, but formulas can be generated on the basis of experience and they will do a better job than individual judgement.”
Building off the Nobel winner comes the richest guy ever Jeff Bezos:
“When we make mistakes, and we’ve made doozies, like the Firephone and many other things that just didn’t work out–we don’t have enough time for me to list all of our failed experiments, but the big winners pay for thousands of failed experiments.”
My guest today is Allison Shapira, the founder and CEO of Global Public Speaking LLC and author of “Speak with Impact: How to Command the Room and Influence Others.” She teaches at the Harvard Kennedy School and offers keynote speeches, workshops, and executive coaching for Fortune 500 companies, government agencies, and nonprofits around the world.
The topic is her book Speak with Impact: How to Command the Room and Influence Others
Las Vegas Roundtrip with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Please enjoy my monologue Las Vegas Roundtrip with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
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For clients who need to travel overseas urgently but the place is having poor internet connectivity, is there any advice given for clients if we need to travel but have open trades?
My guest today is Jeffrey Gitomer, an author, professional speaker, and business trainer, who writes and lectures internationally on sales, customer loyalty, and personal development. He is best known for “The Little Red Book of Selling” and his newest book, coming out at the end of October, is “Truthful Living: The First Writings of Napoleon Hill.” Jeffrey was introduced to the Napolean Hill Foundation about 10 years ago and volunteered to start writing for their newsletter with an article every Friday. Napoleon Hill was the founding father of positive attitudes. In 1917 he had a course in advertising and selling. At the end of every course he would lay out positive thinking. When the Napolean Hill Foundation found these writings, what they call “After the Lesson Visits by Napolean Hill,” the foundation approach Jeffrey about writing a book outlining his teachings. Jeffrey did not hesitate to say yes – and after years of pining over these lecture notes, his newest book was formed.
The topic is his book The Little Red Book of Selling: 12.5 Principles of Sales Greatness.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
