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“Backtesting results show that not all markets are as profitable…”

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I currently have 3 possible strategies on daily and weekly timeframes programmed via ProRealTime: Donchian, Keltner or Bollinger. I would trade as many markets as possible. As an exit I would use an ATR (times 2.3) based on trailing stop loss. 0.5% of the capital is at risk per trade. And I’ve probably read everything Tom Basso has to say about position sizing or seen all the interviews on YouTube. I understand the concept behind it and find it plausible. The problem is: the backtesting results show that not all markets are as profitable with these strategies. But I also know that diversification is incredibly important. But should I diversify at all costs, even if the backtest data shows me that e.g. Coffee or Copper have always realized losses over the last 10 years? Or should I also accept that not every market is suitable for every strategy? What is your opinion on that? Thanks in advance.

Many greetings,
David

You have three strategies? Why is that exactly? Your current portfolio is? What does diversify at all costs mean? How you select a trend following tracking portfolio and how that portfolio is rebalanced every year is critical. You need rules.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Which one is more resilient and one that you would pick out…”

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Hi Michael,

My biggest challenge is I do not yet know of a profitable trend following system that can work for me on my IBKR accounts (especially commodity futures) and I continue to hunt for those who are better at this than I could ever be (including gauging if they can run the account for me.)

Kind regards,
Ravi B.

Your system and time frame now?

As I make progress with your 5th edition book, as well as my own research, I have a question for you. Out of Dunn, Mulvaney, Tulip Trends (Progressive Capital) & Campbell which one is more resilient and one that you would pick out? Not going to hold you to your answer but I am curious. I am keenly aware each TF fund has its own unique “edge” but you would know a whole lot better. My aim is to get on with a TF fund program by H1. (I am a non-resident national of India who lives in the Middle East – sharing for context.)

Public trend following funds share their performance and answer questions. There is no one size fits all. I don’t recommend one over another. That’s on you to decide.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 1123: Compare with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Episode 1123
Episode 1123

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Please enjoy my monologue Compare with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

“The strategy relies on Elliott Waves…”

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Hello Michael, I think that the biggest challenge I have is a distraction. There are multiple factors which are distracting me, but I am working on that to stay focused.

Kind regards
Daniel

Your strategy and time frame now?

The strategy relies on Elliott Waves. Mainly, I operate on 30M and 1HR graphs, so the time with the position is limited to a few days maximum.

Stop the 30M and 1HR bars. Stop the Elliott Waves. It’s nonsense.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“It usually only achieves losses and the drawbacks are gigantic…”

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Hi Michael, I’m very interested in the Turtle system, but I’m a bit confused. Because on the Internet it is said in many places (e.g. on Wikipedia) that the system no longer works today: If anything, it needs to be adjusted. In back tests of the last 20 years, it usually only achieves losses and the drawbacks are gigantic. Are they all jealous? Or did you really adapt the system so that the original rules no longer apply? I would appreciate a clarifying answer.

Best regards
Bernd J

Turtle trading is trend following. Trend following works. Read my TurtleTrader and Trend Following books here.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“What kind of capital will I need to start with…”

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Mike,

Your systems are marketed primarily for the big guys and the returns and drawdowns are superior to major indices. This is achieved by controlling risk and the system inherently produces above average rewards.

What kind of returns will the system produce for a slightly higher risk tolerance?

I am not looking for superior returns but to earn a living off trading. So if I want to average $1000 a day and am willing to take extra risk, what kind of capital will I need to start with?

Ideally, I’d like to fund an account, withdraw 5k a week and still let the account grow.

Regards,
[Name]

1. My systems are marketed primarily to regular traders — individuals. Those are my clients.

2. Risk and reward are tied at the hip. Risk more? You can make more, but with steeper drawdowns. It’s math.

3. Read: www.trendfollowing.com/capital.

4. Anyone who promises you that you can make a consistent set amount per day, i.e. $1000, $10,000, etc. is either a liar or a criminal or both. Guaranteed.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 1122: Larry Hite Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Larry Hite
Larry Hite

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My guest today is Larry Hite, a hedge fund manager who is credited as one of the forefathers of system trading. He co-founded Mint Investments in 1981, which by 1990, had become the largest commodity trading advisor in the world in terms of assets under management. After forming a partnership with the Man Group in the same year, he pioneered the principal protected fund concept, leading to a number of successful structured products and financial engineering innovations.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • The goal of making money
  • Strategies for investing
  • How does trend following work?
  • What causes inflation?

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