Category: Trend Following

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Hi Michael,

[Biggest challenge I face] I’m not sure which rule (game plan) I should use repetitively for 20, 30 years.

I have followed 3 different gurus, and now you are the 4th I follow. All have different rules and game plan. 1 emphasize on stock value, another on price action, another in between.

However, every time I see the market, I fear to enter a trade. Not sure if the homework I do is sufficient to identify a quality trade? How many checklists must I tick before I can identify a good trade? How much stop loss do I need to put? How much % of my portfolio per stock? How many stocks do I need to monitor daily, or weekly?

But following many gurus, it does bring me to you. I like the trend following concept. No need to feel restless on the news.

I am currently reading your book “trend following” (published 2007) from a local library which I come to know about you, I’m just reading til page 20+.

Which book will you recommend so that there is a strategy I can learn from you and start trade using the strategy? Or must I join your course? Cause this book that I am currently reading, (more on physiology) which is also really important, change my mind too! Thanks for that.

Hope to hear from you soon.

Cynthia N.

I help people with books, a podcast and training/courses. All are options. Start with the links below.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

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Hi Michael,

Firstly, I just wanted to say thanks for the work you have done for the trend following industry. I picked up your original Trend Following book well over a decade ago and it really opened my mind. I have been a professional trader for a number of years and although the strategies of the firms I’ve been at haven’t really employed what I would call trend following, I believe at the core of it, it isn’t so much about the directional aspect of trend following its about the approach to risk, no matter your methodology for selecting your entry the unavoidable truth is losses are guaranteed, but keeping them as small as possible with an asymmetric pay-out is your best chance at trading and life as you are letting randomness and chaos in life work in your favour. I have seen highly successful traders from mean reversion, to trend following, to stat arb all be successful by using that core tenant.

I have become more interested in learning how to apply trend following to other parts of my life, as it’s such an elegant way to view the world its almost a philosophy, I applied it to dating and am now married, applied it to looking for a house and so on. I have recently read The Rule and although wasn’t too much in the book I didn’t already know it was fantastic at cementing the philosophy.

My question to you is, as someone that has studied this philosophy of trend following and I think has looked at it from a more “spiritual perspective” (I don’t mean that in any woo woo way but I mean the wider implications of living your life in this way) have you come across any complimentary books, theories or philosophies outside the world of trading that support this mentality?

I know elements of Buddhism are arguably about going with the flow, but I don’t feel Buddhists are particularly concerned about maximising payouts, it’s more about having no objective want or need which doesn’t really sit right with me. I’m very goal orientated and feel that’s important, I don’t think Buddhists are particularly bothered by how much they lose or asymmetric rewards. I feel there are so many things out of my control in life which I have learned to harness for my own good in the markets but troubled with how to deal with the “trend” of many other cultural things that concern me. My instinct is to “hold my losses” and stick to my way of thinking in life and often wonder if I am acting as a trend follower should. I know you have also stepped into some political discourse and other non market related talking points. Have you found effective tools for using TF for navigating areas outside the markets?

Hope that makes sense and is somewhat of an interesting point to ponder.

Kind Regards,
Tom G.

I agree. Trend following fits nicely with Buddhism. Alan Watts, for example.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

[My biggest challenge is] Determining the best trigger/entry point and in what time frame. Will using the turtle’s risk management over multiple time frames allow further diversification?

Well, you asked. I attached pictures for your review. When I put on the original trade, I had no formula to pyramid or feel confident of risk control when pyramiding. I only created the spreadsheet within the last week after reviewing “The Complete Turtle Trader” several times.

Strategy:

• Enter trade when price crosses above the 275 Upper Donchian Channel on a 15-minute chart
• Primarily working with only 2x and 3x Leveraged ETF’s
• Exit trade on a stop loss order at the 275 Lower Donchian Channel.

On the attached trade, obviously, I second guessed myself and sold early. I kept thinking about Turtle rules with their hard exit half of the entry spot. In other words, I exited when the price crossed below the 138 Donchian Channel on the 15-minute chart.

The question I have is, any suggestions on the best time frame to use? Minute, 5 minutes, 15 minutes, daily? Or can the same process be applied to all time frames for further diversification?

Howie M.

15-minute charts? Not trend following. See below.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

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Feedback in:

Hello Michael,

I am a musician and I have always been attracted to the stock exchange market, however, day trading or fundamental analysis seemed always overwhelming to me and I was never convinced.

When I googled for the best trading books, yours appeared in the top 5 and attracted me the most. I was not aware of trend following but I just entered the 3rd part of “Trend Following” and I am already convinced. So now I keep on reading and I am wondering about how to build my strategy and what programs I would need to start with as I am extremely novice and also with a very bad maths background.

I hope I will find answers through your book(s) and any other ideas. Help or mentoring is more than welcome.

All the best,
Nikos L.

Dig in below too.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

Dear Michael,

I started looking into trend following a few years ago. Unfortunately, I got distracted and went back to old habits, ETF investing and stock picking as the basis for my own portfolio. I myself worked in derivatives trading for years and then built a company that offered data and analysis on open-end funds similar to Morningstar.

Now the time has come again, I would like to deal more intensively with my accumulated wealth and make myself independent of all the quacks and psychics. The idea of trend following convinces me very much and I am about to book your course to build up a sustainable wealth management for myself. Unfortunately, I can’t find any further information on what is included in the course or how it is structured. Does it really take 6 months or am I possibly faster with my prior knowledge?

I look forward to your response and of course getting started.

Many greetings,
Torsten I.

You can go faster than 6 months. Just like the Turtles.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

[My biggest challenge] As a discretionary trader, I would say over-trading. I tend to start seeing patterns and trading way too often and not in line with directional bias or trends. I actually started as a systematic trader and did extremely well.

Ben

You need:

• Exact rules for selecting your tracking portfolio.
• Exact rules for entering your trades at the right time.
• Exact rules for exiting your trades with a loss.
• Exact rules for exiting your trades with a profit.
• Exact rules for how much money to bet on each trade.

Don’t have that? Trouble.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.