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Timing the Pop Ain’t A Profitable Business


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Exploring Trend Following for the First Time

Feedback:

Michael: I have received [your] CD. Thank you very much for all the work you are doing in compiling this eclectic knowledge and putting that in one central place. I have been in tune with your work through books and podcast last few months. I am on my journey, searching for [a] method that works for me. I have not purchased anything but getting increasing[ly more] curious about your techniques that you have derived [from] primary sources and are not in public domain. Following are basic questions, when you get a chance have someone reply: Do you have one system (set of rules) or many systems that work independently? How much emphasis [do] you have on instrument selection? Out of 30 or so liquid markets even if all signals are taken with 1% risk, that is 30% risk in book? Are your systems incorporating position sizing? How long have you done back testing for systems, is there a way to see back tested data by trade? I am big in looking at contribution of individual trade to total P&L.(I am not looking for all trades to make money, but more interested in P&L distribution). Regards, Maulin P.

There are a few core systems that allow variables to be changed to meet your risk objectives. Portfolio selection is critical and how you manage the risk in said portfolio is critical. I explain all. There is a process. Not as simple as you describe, but always operates under the guise of protecting capital. Yes, position sizing. 100%. No back tests are provided. Clients can choose varying portfolios and varying risk levels. Not one size fits all. Success stories: trendfollowing.com/success.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 186: Mikael Stenbom Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Mikael Stenbom
Mikael Stenbom

My guest today is Mikael Stenbom, the CEO and founder of RPM, which is an advisory consulting firm in Sweden. They advise, consult, or manage over 3.5B AUM. Stenbom has had tremendous experience in understanding strategy and the money management side of the CTA/managed futures world.

The topic is CTA’s.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Stenbom’s early influences
  • Stenbom’s economics background
  • Connections between economics, trading, and sociology
  • The Austrian school of economics
  • His style of responsive, systematic trading to new clients
  • Andrew Lo’s Adaptive Markets Hypothesis
  • The process of rebranding Stenbom’s firm in 2008
  • The “politically infected” investor
  • The cultural compatibility between Nordic countries and the Japanese

Listen to this episode:

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Right and Wrong Doesn’t Help the Process

Ed Seykota recently offered on his site:

Labeling trades as right and wrong, depending on the outcome, indicates some or another emotional attachment to individual events. From the perspective of a stream of trades that generate from a trading method, you might notice that you get some winners and some losers and that your long-term results aggregate the individual events.

Spot on.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

No Funnymentals in Trend Following

Feedback in:

Hi Michael, I’ve been trading trends the last 3 years and it’s been good. However, whenever I revisit Market Wizards or listen to your podcasts, I always notice that some of the great traders, including the trend followers, have some fundamental aspects in their trading plus the use of technical indicators other than price. If trading is merely trading numbers and price action is really what matters, is it foolhardy to think that trading without charts(just daily closing prices and nothing else) can be profitable? I had manually churned out a set of performance data based on some EOD price charts of the last 15 years. But I’m planning to work on evaluating my trend following system using only prices and no charts. Is there someone who has traded trends profitably without charts? I appreciate your entire work of trend following. Thank you! Warmest regards, Francis T.

The core trend followers in my books? No funnymentals (Ed Seykota term of course). None of the trend followers in my books talk about charts. They use price data. Do charts help? That’s all subjective! Price is objective.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Markets: They Trend, They Flow, They Surprise

Chapter taken from “Trend Commandments”:

Markets go up, down, and sideways. They trend. They flow. They surprise. Have markets changed? Not only have markets changed, they will continue to change. Check your history books. If you have a valid market philosophy, learning to accept that change and flow with it is your greatest asset. No matter how ridiculous market moves appear at the beginning, and no matter how extended or irrational they seem at the end, following trends is the rational choice in a chaotic, changing world.

That thinking leaves trend followers as generalists when it comes to their trading strategy and that’s not easy to accept for many. The dominant trend within universities is ever-narrower specialization. A higher premium is placed on deep knowledge within a single field (read: fundamental expertise in one market), versus broad wisdom across multiple fronts.

For example, one trend following practitioner started trading trends in 1974—making hundreds of millions in profits and perhaps billions for clients. The major strategic elements of his trend following trading systems have never changed. He was blunt: “The markets are just the markets. I know that is unusual sounding.”

Occasionally, someone trying to promote something or start a debate will argue that trend following has to change due to changing market conditions. Specious. The root of trend following is based on responding to change. It is designed to be adaptable.

Does that mean every systematic trend trader will take the risk of shooting only for huge returns? No. Does that mean every trend trader will capture a trend in the exact same way? No. The trend following way has many practitioners and many recipes. However, just as there are thousands of car models, they are still cars.

Think about my words.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trading Rules: Strategies for Success

A great excerpt from “Trading Rules: Strategies for Success” by William Eng. It’s a great reminder that market prediction is a fool’s errand:

When you buy something, you want it to go up. When you sell something, you want it to go down. The chance of entering the trade correctly is small, but the chance of exiting the trade correctly is smaller. The chance of being right on both entering and exiting is the smallest. With such diminishing odds of coming through with a completely correct and, therefore, profitable trading campaign, the fewer decisions you make in the markets, the more profitable your trading should be. How many people actually get to sell at the top or buy at the bottom? At most, a handful in each reversal area. First, you must be a market follower, once the market has told you want it wants to do. If the market is a raging bull, you have no alternative but to buy. If it is bearish, you have no alternative but to sell every time you get the opportunity. Let the market tell you what to do. To do otherwise is to try to control the markets-something that is only reserved for God and natural disasters. Secondly, selling at the top and buying at the bottom does not guarantee profits. How many times have you heard of traders who managed to sell near the highs or buy near the bottoms, only to miss the ensuing move completely.

Read that back in the day. I need to see if William might appear on my podcast.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.