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Category: Podcasts

Ep. 364: Simplicity Trumps Complexity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Simplicity Trumps Complexity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Simplicity Trumps Complexity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Simplicity Trumps Complexity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Why simple strategies are better than complex ones
  • The importance of defining your risk as a number
  • How risk and reward are two sides of the same coin
  • Why going for the average is a losing strategy
  • The difference between hiring a financial advisor and an trader

“Financially-engineered assets often fail to perform as their creators intended. Or they are ill-equipped to deal with unanticipated events.” – Ky Trand Ho (Forbes)

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Ep. 363: Blair Hull Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Blair Hull
Blair Hull

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My guest today is Blair Hull. Hull founded Hull Investments, LLC in 1999 and currently serves as the firm’s Chairman. He created Hull Tactical Asset Allocation, LLC, a registered investment advisor, in 2013. HTAA operates an actively managed ETF and utilizes advanced algorithms as well as macro and technical indicators to anticipate future market returns. Prior to launching Hull Tactical Asset Allocation, LLC, he was the founder of Hull Trading Company and served as that firm’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

The topics are blackjack and stock trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • The importance of having a strategy and sticking to it
  • Why money management and discipline are key to trading success
  • Objectivity vs. emotions in blackjack and stock trading
  • Choosing the right markers and variables
  • Consumption as a function of income and wealth
  • The future of market prediction and machine learning

“We get fearful at the wrong times, we get greedy at the wrong times, when we have to stick to a specific plan.” – Blair Hull

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Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

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Ep. 362: Speculation Wins Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Speculation Wins Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Speculation Wins Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Speculation Wins Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why speculation is such an important concept
  • The philosophy behind trend following
  • Watching results rather than causes
  • Cutting short your losses
  • Timeless excerpts from as early as the 1800s
  • The early beginnings of Wall Street

“Cut short your losses, let your profits run on.” – David Ricardo

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Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Rate and Review Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

Have a question or comment about this episode? Post it below. Such as is the Jeanne Levy Church foundation a con?

Ep. 361: Francisco Vaca Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Francisco Vaca
Francisco Vaca

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My guest today is Francisco Vaca. Vaca can be called a second generation turtle trader. He worked with Richard Dennis at C & D Commodities, and for the last 15 years has been closely associated with Paul Rabar. He is now the Co-Chief Investment Officer at Rabar Market Research. Before he became a trader, Vaca was a particle physicist and worked at the famous Fermi lab. This is not an insignificant fact, as his background in mathematics and statistics became very useful in his career as a trader.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • The importance of distinguishing between long term and short term track records
  • “Alpha” and “beta” trading strategies
  • How the holding period length affects the risk-reward profile and return streaks
  • The benefits of diversification across different holding times
  • Using high frequency trading technology in long term trend following
  • How correlations are often misinterpreted
  • Knowing the limitations of your tools

“The best performing system historically is not necessarily the best system going forward” – Francisco Vaca

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Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

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Ep. 360: Pas de Dough with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Pas de Dough with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Pas de Dough with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue “Pas de Dough” with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • What trend following and dancing have in common
  • The philosophical foundations of trend following
  • Stock trading and location independence
  • Why relying on “fundamentals” is fool’s gold
  • What being a silent partner in the trend means
  • Why Darvas’ thinking from 1959 still applies today
  • The importance of having no ego when it comes to trading

“The only sound reason for my buying a stock is that it is rising in price. If that is happening, no other reason is required. If that is not happening, no other reason is worth considering” —Nicolas Darvas

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Rate and Review Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

Have a question or comment about this episode? Post it below.

Ep. 359: Campbell Harvey Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Campbell Harvey
Campbell Harvey

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My guest today is Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke university, and research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research in Massachusetts. His research papers on these subjects have been published in many scientific journals.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Survivorship bias, and not being fooled by randomness
  • Why people with higher risk tolerance experience much higher upsides
  • Understanding process vs. outcome
  • The difference between volatility and skew
  • The importance of recognizing that asset returns are rarely “normally distributed”
  • When it is appropriate to apply a general framework, and when it is not
  • The Sharpe ratio – is it always relevant?
  • Harry Markowitz, Jim Simons, and Nassim Taleb

“These people that are taking a lot of risk, with enough luck, will rise to the top. The person that is risk-averse is stuck in the middle” – Campbell Harvey

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Rate and Review Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

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Ep. 358: The China Trip with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
The China Trip with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Episode 358 The China Trip with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue The China Trip with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.