Archive
Author: Michael Covel
- May 9, 2005Skill v. Opportunity (& Luck)
Can a great trader have great skill and no opportunity to make money? Can a bad trader have no skill and tons of opportunity to make money? The answer is yes to…
- May 5, 2005Trend Following Traders Trade Currencies
Currency – An Asset Class (PDF Whitepaper).
- May 4, 2005Representing Uncertainty
In doing some research on the concept of ‘uncertainty’, this paragraph caught my eye: “If there is one thing that defines and limits our efforts to better understand extreme and rare events…
- April 29, 2005Technical Trading
Food for thought: “Technical trading is not glamorous. It will rarely tell that you bought at the lows and sold at the highs. But trading should be a business, and a systematic…
- April 25, 2005Sharpe Ratio Thoughts
How should one look at trend following performance? Winton Capital, David Harding’s successful trend following shop, offers insights from their recent white paper PDF.
- April 11, 2005What Are the Odds?
Consider: “The true meaning of the word [odds] is ”a surprising concurrence of events, perceived as meaningfully related, with no apparent causal connection.” In other words, pure happenstance. Yet by merely noticing…
- April 10, 2005Probability of Life
“To make a simple point, it would be impossible to take a profit (or loss for that matter) unless price trended at least a little bit. Can one know absolutely when price…