In doing some research on the concept of ‘uncertainty’, this paragraph caught my eye:
“If there is one thing that defines and limits our efforts to better understand extreme and rare events it is uncertainty. Uncertainty arises from both an imperfect understanding of the rare events and processes we wish to study (e.g., terrorism, natural hazards), and the imperfect, out-of-date, and incomplete data we must work with in order to try and understand these events and processes.”
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Along these lines consider the following white paper “Confronting Uncertainty: Intelligent Risk Management with Futures” from trader Robert M. Tamiso: View PDF.