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Author: Michael Covel

Author of Trend Following and TurtleTrader.

Who’s Your Daddy?

Posted on by Michael Covel

A recent email conversation:

Ray: I’ve read all the books and saw the movie. I really enjoy the podcast. I’ve learned a lot from you work and look forward to seeing what new projects your working on. At times i may not agree with your rants, but it does make me think Thank you for all you’ve done.

Covel: Thanks. What do you disagree on?

Ray: Perhaps agree or disagree is not the proper term, for I find your work very enlightening. Though I agree with the argument you are making, at times I wonder if there is a better way to make. For instance, the image of Big Ben kissing me on the lips and tucking me in is not the most pleasant. I understand and agree with your point of view just not the visual image. Maybe it’s just the green tea talking.

Covel: Ah I see. Two ways I see that. Gross and a better image to be used perhaps. Or spot on and it makes people terribly uncomfortable to think about how much power they have entrusted to him. And that his position has truly become daddy-esque.

Ray: Did we entrust him with the power? He’s not elected. Or did he just take the power? 2008 provided a great opportunity for someone to grab power and Ben took as much as he could.

Covel: People have voted for the overall system (that includes Bernanke) to take care of them from cradle to grave. Sort of like when we are 5 years old and our parents tuck us in and give us a kiss.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 148: Jerry Parker Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker

My guest today is Jerry Parker, a trend following trader with over 25 years of experience. His firm is Chesapeake Capital and he was featured in Covel’s book “The Complete TurtleTrader.”

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Fitness
  • The Hindenburg “omen”
  • Objective entry/exit criteria
  • Why you’d stay in a long position that you wouldn’t want to enter into today
  • The “oversleeping” hypothetical
  • The idea that reducing volatility increases risk
  • Definitions of volatility and risk
  • Parker’s thoughts on trend followers not really having drawdowns in the typical sense
  • “Managed futures” and why investors may not want that vs. “trend following”
  • Definitions of “managed futures” and “trend following”
  • Why managed futures isn’t a good term for some

Listen to this episode:

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No “Calls” Here and No Apologies

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Can you please send me a list of all the historical trade recommendations you have made in the last 3 years? I am thinking of subscribing and would like to see your results. Thanks, Gary

I am not in the business of giving trade recommendations. My services are clear.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Talking Loud and Saying Nothing

Posted on by Michael Covel

This email came in:

I am an avid listener of you podcast, I have read and seen much of your material and I have to say enjoy your controversial approach. I find it hilarious how you poke fun at the technical charting ‘fan base’, but like the many I have to say I would disagree that trend following is the only proven way. In short, I think we both agree risk management is the key to longevity whatever style you adopt, from many of the legends have been quoted that the style of trading is not the issue but finding a system which suits your personalty is critical. As 90 percent of any trade is psychological any system in the wrong hands is doomed to fail if executed emotionally even trend following. There are many famous technical traders all of which would have there profit and loss available to see from the same resources you produced when showing all the successful trend followers. I don’t think your argument towards the technicals is valid, but l do agree that trend following works and is a great trading strategy, l just think its a little naive to think its the only one. Keep up the good work, I really like your material.
Regards
James

Where is the data for the predictive technical analysis traders? Send me the decades of performance data. James Brown, and I say this with a smile, saw it:

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 147: Rolf Dobelli Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Rolf Dobelli
Rolf Dobelli

My guest today is Rolf Dobelli, a Swiss author and entrepreneur. Dobelli is a member of Edge Foundation, Inc., PEN International and the Royal Society of Arts. He is the founder of the World Minds foundation.

The topic is his book The Art of Thinking Clearly.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Availability bias
  • Statistics
  • The sunk cost fallacy
  • The difficulty of logical thinking
  • Authority bias and outcome bias
  • Process vs. outcome
  • The irrelevancy and “white noise” of news
  • Information overload
  • Neomania and the obsession with the “new”
  • Nassim Taleb, outliers, and the black swan
  • J.P. Morgan, banks, and looking behind the facade
  • Why watching and waiting is torture for people (the action bias)
  • The idea that “the boat matters more than your rowing”
  • The paradox of choice, closing doors, and settings fire to ships
  • The “it will get worse before it gets better” fallacy and stop loss
  • Applying these lessons to daily life

Listen to this episode:

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Why Do I Have to Go to School?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Michael, I have never contacted you before but have listened to all your podcasts. Great stuff! My wife forwarded this to me and I immediately thought of you, in addition to a number of other free thinkers …and just knew I had to forward it. Enjoy,
Tim

Give a big thanks to your wife for the find:

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Is Not “Eyeballing”

Posted on by Michael Covel

When do I enter and exit? When do trend followers know it is the right time to enter or exit? Some feedback:

Michael, how do you know when a trend starts, and when a trend ends? I’m not asking for your precise signals, but you never mention that somewhere in your writings or student presentations there actually is some precise signal for entering and a precise signal for exiting. And what are the signals for confirming that a trend is in existence? I would feel much better about you if you just said that you did indeed have proprietary signals for the existence of a trend, a signal for entering, a signal for exiting, and that you impart this to your students. I hope you won’t say that you just eyeball a trend and make a judgement without signals as to the entry and exit.
Thanks.

You have read chapter 5 of my book The Complete TurtleTrader? It is a system walk through with entries/exits. Yes, my systems/training at www.trendfollowing.com has exact entry/exits. In terms of trend existence–a trend can never be measured or properly known until after an exit signal. There is no eyeballing in the trend following world. This is about systems.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.