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Author: Michael Covel

Author of Trend Following and TurtleTrader.

Prediction is for ‘Suckas’

Posted on by Michael Covel

From The Huffington Post:

“According to a survey by Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales, effectively all economists agreed that stock prices are hard to predict. Only 59% of average Americans felt the same way.”

No surprise.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Nassim Taleb Quote: What Does a Turkey Have in Common With the Stock Market?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Turkey quote Nassim Taleb, black swan

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Quotes, be aware of the unexpected, the importance of Black Swan theory thinking.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 157: Mike Bellafiore Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Mike Bellafiore
Mike Bellafiore

My guest today is Mike Bellafiore, the co-founder of SMB Capital, a proprietary trading firm in New York City, and SMBU, its trader education company. Bellafiore also writes regularly for the globally popular SMBU blog, where he shares ideas on how to improve trading performance.

The topic is his book The Playbook: An Inside Look at How to Think Like a Professional Trader.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Real rewards to being a successful trader
  • Passion in trading
  • Why professional traders fail
  • Parallels between trading and writing
  • Bellafiore’s history and definitions of “prop trading”
  • Trading short timeframes and intraday trading
  • The “prop desk”
  • Ups and downs in Bellafiore’s career
  • The early history of SMB Capital
  • Bellafiore’s early struggles with his father’s health concerns, his mother’s death, an SEC investigation, and how “The PlayBook” came out of it
  • The ten attributes of a great trader
  • Trading psychology and mindset
  • Personality types and short-term trading
  • Microscalping and swing trading
  • Expertise, flow, and mastery
  • Process vs. outcome
  • Entrepreneurship
  • The importance of coaching
  • The four ways to become great at anything

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You Have to Be Asleep to Believe It

Posted on by Michael Covel

Great video clip from George Carlin. He reiterates everything I talk about on my blog, in my books and on my podcast, “It’s called the American Dream because you have to be asleep to believe it.”:

My film on the same subject.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 156: Patrick Boyle Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Patrick Boyle
Patrick Boyle

My guest today is Patrick Boyle, a fund manager, academic, and author. Boyle is the Founder of Palomar Capital Management, a UK-based hedge fund.

The topic is fund management.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Directional trading
  • Timeframes in trading and short-term trading
  • Boyle’s background and how he came to be a founding partner of Palomar
  • Boyle’s time working with Victor Niederhoffer
  • Niederhoffer and his teaching lineage
  • David Harding and Bill Dunn
  • Boyle’s political stances, the Fed, and the SEC
  • Risk and running a directional fund
  • Performance correlation to the S&P and the trend following CTA’s
  • The big picture takeaways that Boyle learned under Niederhoffer
  • Correlations to people who have come out of Niederhoffer’s shop
  • Monroe Trout
  • Testing ideas
  • How quantitative analysis is different from technical analysis
  • The book publishing industry, and why all the secrets might not be in a $20 book
  • Where Palomar Fund Management is at today
  • Foundational advice to the budding fund manager
  • Libertarianism

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17% Per Year?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback:

Hey Mike, I’ve been wondering something about the returns of trend followers throughout the decades and I would like to hear your opinion. I believe I once heard you say that the average trend follower according to the data available indicates an average return of about 17% annually (Correct me if I’m wrong). However, I can’t help but think of the incredible returns of hundreds to thousands of percent that Jesse Livermore and others in day like Bernard Baruch (don’t know if he was a trend follower) was able to achieve. If I remember correctly, at one point, Livermore was doubling his money almost weekly. What do you think is the reason for such astronomical returns? I think there was more to it than just the 10 to 1 stock leverage of their era. Do you think it was because of Livermore’s poor money management? He did have a tendency to bet to entirely too much on his trades. Perhaps it was the combination of betting too much plus the 10:1 stock leverage. What do you think?

There is not some one set return number for Trend Following (i.e. 17%). Those old guys? You have their audited returns?

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Warren Buffet Meme: His View onDerivatives

Posted on by Michael Covel

Warren buffet meme says derivatives are weapons of mass destruction, then uses derivatives to make billions

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.