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Timing the Pop Ain’t A Profitable Business


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Exploring Trend Following for the First Time

Feedback:

Michael: I have received [your] CD. Thank you very much for all the work you are doing in compiling this eclectic knowledge and putting that in one central place. I have been in tune with your work through books and podcast last few months. I am on my journey, searching for [a] method that works for me. I have not purchased anything but getting increasing[ly more] curious about your techniques that you have derived [from] primary sources and are not in public domain. Following are basic questions, when you get a chance have someone reply: Do you have one system (set of rules) or many systems that work independently? How much emphasis [do] you have on instrument selection? Out of 30 or so liquid markets even if all signals are taken with 1% risk, that is 30% risk in book? Are your systems incorporating position sizing? How long have you done back testing for systems, is there a way to see back tested data by trade? I am big in looking at contribution of individual trade to total P&L.(I am not looking for all trades to make money, but more interested in P&L distribution). Regards, Maulin P.

There are a few core systems that allow variables to be changed to meet your risk objectives. Portfolio selection is critical and how you manage the risk in said portfolio is critical. I explain all. There is a process. Not as simple as you describe, but always operates under the guise of protecting capital. Yes, position sizing. 100%. No back tests are provided. Clients can choose varying portfolios and varying risk levels. Not one size fits all. Success stories: trendfollowing.com/success.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 186: Mikael Stenbom Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Mikael Stenbom
Mikael Stenbom

My guest today is Mikael Stenbom, the CEO and founder of RPM, which is an advisory consulting firm in Sweden. They advise, consult, or manage over 3.5B AUM. Stenbom has had tremendous experience in understanding strategy and the money management side of the CTA/managed futures world.

The topic is CTA’s.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Stenbom’s early influences
  • Stenbom’s economics background
  • Connections between economics, trading, and sociology
  • The Austrian school of economics
  • His style of responsive, systematic trading to new clients
  • Andrew Lo’s Adaptive Markets Hypothesis
  • The process of rebranding Stenbom’s firm in 2008
  • The “politically infected” investor
  • The cultural compatibility between Nordic countries and the Japanese

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Harvard Yoga Scientists Find Proof of Meditation Benefit; Trend Following Benefit Too

Trading can be taxing on emotions. Hard on health. Anxiety can arrive. The good news? There is a proactive health process you should consider right along with your position sizing algorithm:

Scientists are getting close to proving what yogis have held to be true for centuries — yoga and meditation can ward off stress and disease.
John Denninger, a psychiatrist at Harvard Medical School, is leading a five-year study on how the ancient practices affect genes and brain activity in the chronically stressed. His latest work follows a study he and others published earlier this year showing how so-called mind-body techniques can switch on and off some genes linked to stress and immune function.

While hundreds of studies have been conducted on the mental health benefits of yoga and meditation, they have tended to rely on blunt tools like participant questionnaires, as well as heart rate and blood pressure monitoring. Only recently have neuro-imaging and genomics technology used in Denninger’s latest studies allowed scientists to measure physiological changes in greater detail.

“There is a true biological effect,” said Denninger, director of research at the Benson-Henry Institute for Mind Body Medicine at Massachusetts General Hospital, one of Harvard Medical School’s teaching hospitals. “The kinds of things that happen when you meditate do have effects throughout the body, not just in the brain.”

The government-funded study may persuade more doctors to try an alternative route for tackling the source of a myriad of modern ailments. Stress-induced conditions can include everything from hypertension and infertility to depression and even the aging process. They account for 60 to 90 percent of doctor’s visits in the U.S., according to the Benson-Henry Institute. The World Health Organization estimates stress costs U.S. companies at least $300 billion a year through absenteeism, turn-over and low productivity.

Seinfeld, Murdoch

The science is advancing alongside a budding “mindfulness” movement, which includes meditation devotees such as Bill George, board member of Goldman Sachs Group and Exxon Mobil Corp., and comedian Jerry Seinfeld. News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch recently revealed on Twitter that he is giving meditation a try.

As a psychiatrist specializing in depression, Denninger said he was attracted to mind-body medicine, pioneered in the late 1960s by Harvard professor Herbert Benson, as a possible way to prevent the onset of depression through stress reduction. While treatment with pharmaceuticals is still essential, he sees yoga and meditation as useful additions to his medical arsenal.

Exchange Program

It’s an interest that dates back to an exchange program he attended in China the summer before entering Harvard as an undergraduate student. At Hangzhou University he trained with a tai chi master every morning for three weeks.

“By the end of my time there, I had gotten through my thick teenage skull that there was something very important about the breath and about inhabiting the present moment,” he said. “I’ve carried that with me since then.”

His current study, to conclude in 2015 with about $3.3 million in funding from the National Institutes of Health, tracks 210 healthy subjects with high levels of reported chronic stress for six months. They are divided in three groups.

One group with 70 participants perform a form of yoga known as Kundalini, another 70 meditate and the rest listen to stress education audiobooks, all for 20 minutes a day at home. Kundalini is a form of yoga that incorporates meditation, breathing exercises and the singing of mantras in addition to postures. Denninger said it was chosen for the study because of its strong meditation component.

Participants come into the lab for weekly instruction for two months, followed by three sessions where they answer questionnaires, give blood samples used for genomic analysis and undergo neuro-imaging tests.

‘Immortality Enzyme’

Unlike earlier studies, this one is the first to focus on participants with high levels of stress. The study published in May in the medical journal PloS One showed that one session of relaxation-response practice was enough to enhance the expression of genes involved in energy metabolism and insulin secretion and reduce expression of genes linked to inflammatory response and stress. There was an effect even among novices who had never practiced before.

Harvard isn’t the only place where scientists have started examining the biology behind yoga.

In a study published last year, scientists at the University of California at Los Angeles and Nobel Prize winner Elizabeth Blackburn found that 12 minutes of daily yoga meditation for eight weeks increased telomerase activity by 43 percent, suggesting an improvement in stress-induced aging. Blackburn of the University of California, San Francisco, shared the Nobel medicine prize in 2009 with Carol Greider and Jack Szostak for research on the telomerase “immortality enzyme,” which slows the cellular aging process.

Build Resilience

Not all patients will be able to stick to a daily regimen of exercise and relaxation. Nor should they have to, according to Denninger and others. Simply knowing breath-management techniques and having a better understanding of stress can help build resilience.

“A certain amount of stress can be helpful,” said Sophia Dunn, a clinical psychotherapist who trained at King’s College London. “Yoga and meditation are tools for enabling us to swim in difficult waters.”

Thanks to Gary Percy for the find. My yoga? See pics on FB.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

This May Be the Holiest of Holy Grails

Money making advice is apparently woven throughout the bible:

Most people know Sean Hyman from his regular appearances on Fox Business, CNBC, and Bloomberg Television, but what they don’t know is that Sean is a former pastor, and that his secret to investing is woven within the Bible. Perhaps that can explain why, despite his uncanny ability to predict precise moves in the stock market, Sean is often laughed at for his unique stance on investing. For example, a few months ago Sean appeared on Bloomberg Television. At that time, Best Buy (BBY) was dropping to all-time lows of $16 a share. Sean predicted the stock could go down to $11 a share, and would then quickly rebound to $25 per share, and after that would rally to $40 per share over the next year.

Another commentator on the show actually mocked Sean for his stance, saying “$40 on Best Buy? If that’s the case Apple (AAPL) is going to $1,500. That’s the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard!” (Editor’s Note: At the time, Apple was trading at $650 per share).

Within a few weeks, Sean would receive the last laugh. Best Buy dropped down to $11.20 a share and has since rebounded to $30 a share, continuing its path to $40… exactly as Sean predicted. (Ironically, Apple has dropped down to about $400 per share).

During a recent private dinner with Sean, once he’d blessed the food, I wasted no time asking him what his secret is for investing so successfully. I expected Sean to say that it was his years of experience at Charles Schwab or perhaps one of the complicated algorithms he uses for timing the stock market. So when Sean responded that his secret to investing was the Bible, I was thoroughly shocked.

Yes, I knew Sean was a Christian (anyone who spends more than 1 minute with him will pick that up!). However, people usually keep their faith separate from things like… investing. But not Sean. For Sean, the Bible is his FOUNDATION for investing. He explained to me how there is actually a “Biblical Money Code” woven into Scripture.

Sean says it is this Biblical Money Code that took him from making a mere $15,000 a year to now giving away up to $50,000 a year. Sean also credits this code with helping him turn his father’s $40,000 retirement account into $396,000.

Certain investment titans, Sean says, such as Warren Buffett and John Templeton, have already used this code to amass billions. What Sean had to say impressed me so much that I asked him to put a presentation together that reveals how anyone could use this “Biblical Money Code.” (Click here to watch it now)

I’ve personally watched this presentation several times and it is already spreading virally. During the video, Sean uses the teachings of King Solomon, Jesus of Nazareth, and the Apostle Paul to show how anyone can get out of debt… make sound investments… and morally build substantial wealth.

Sean even reveals a “debilitating ‘financial sin’ that blinds many… and could be costing you up to 41% of your life savings at this very moment.” What’s so deceiving about this sin is how innocent and safe it appears at first. And at the end, he finishes up with his “12-12-12 plan for investing.” This is a simple step-by-step plan to go from being a saver, to an investor, to a philanthropist.

If you buy into Bible investing you deserve to lose every last penny to your name.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Podcast Praise from Canada

Awesome feedback:

Michael, Great podcast. Thanks very much for all your hard work. Once I found your podcast, I immediately went back over older episodes and ordered Trend Commandments. Finally there is an ongoing excellent resource for trend trading. I am a trader in Canada that is constantly honing my strategies and paying very little attention to mainstream babble. Enjoy your travels and thanks again. Jason Low
PS. I have ordered at least 5 books that you or your guests have recommended – all have been great recommendations.

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 184: Cal Newport Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Cal Newport
Cal Newport

My guest today is Cal Newport, an American non-fiction author and associate professor of computer science at Georgetown University.

The topic is passion.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Alan Watts
  • Why following your passion isn’t such a great idea from Newport’s perspective
  • The notion of deliberate practice and the 10000 hour rule, falling back on simplistic strategies that fail
  • Passion following success as the true gauge
  • Misconceptions about passion
  • Thinking of passion as a side-effect of running your career in the right way
  • Overcoming difficulty as a necessary step in the process
  • The work and analysis Newport has done looking at top chess players
  • The systematic aspect of gaining skill and its ties to passion
  • Anxiety and failure

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