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“Has anyone published data on the efficacy of trend following using mutual funds…”

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Hi, Michael. Thanks for keeping this site up and updated. Anything controversial is never easy, even when you know you’re doing the right thing.

I got intro’d to trend following by Matthew Erickson’s book, “Asset Rotation”, and I’m working my way through your “Trend Following” now. First, I have a copy that published in the early 2000s. Do more recent editions address how to tactically survive and potentially defeat a lot of the whipsaw I’m seeing in data since 2012?

Second, has anyone published data on the efficacy of trend following using mutual funds?

Thanks much, and have a great week ahead, sir.

Whipsaws are not new and the only way to avoid them is to not trade. I don’t see anything special about 2012 to now, especially since I have no idea what you are doing or what data you are analyzing. My 5th edition of Trend Following blows away the total content of my 1st edition of Trend Following. 1000s of mutual funds buying and holding will naturally have high correlation, so I don’t see the need or benefit there. Trade the stock indicies in a trend following portfolio and there you go. The same thing.


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“Psych is where it’s at in trading…”

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Mr. Michael,

Another skullcracker!

Psych is where it’s at in trading.

Thank you for another job well done.

Merry Christmas,
Kevin W.

Welcome!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 1240: Tobias Dengel Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Tobias Dengel
Tobias Dengel

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My guest today is Tobias Dengel, the President of WillowTree, a TELUS International Company. With over 20 years of technology expertise, Tobias has been recognized by Glassdoor as a Top CEO and featured as a VOICE Summit speaker at the Consumer Electronics Show in 2022 and 2023. Prior to WillowTree, Tobias helped steward strategic partnerships and acquisitions and drive innovation on behalf of companies including AOL and Kearney.

The topic is his book The Sound of the Future: The Coming Age of Voice Technology.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Growing up in Virginia
  • Voice technology and its current limitations
  • Implications on language translation and accessibility
  • Search engine optimization
  • Challenges with new voice technology
  • Effective trust and cognitive trust
  • Impact of human-like features

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 1239: Inside the Mind with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Episode 1239
Episode 1239

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Please enjoy my monologue Inside the Mind with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

“Would love to have had the opportunity to learn under Richard Dennis…”

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Michael,

Sending you the receipt from my purchase of Trend Following so I may get a copy of your free interactive trend following presentation.

Not sure if you read these emails or not but stumbled across your little book of trading at my local library. It was eye opening! I then bought your turtle trader book and would love to have had the opportunity to learn under Richard Dennis.

But it did not happen so I have to figure this out on my own. I have a lot to learn but I am going to make this happen.

Respectfully,
Kevin

Dennis is out of that game. Here is your next best option for learning.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
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Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“How many markets to cover, what time frame is ideal, how to build the right rules and the discipline…”

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Mr. Covel,

Thank you for hosting such a wonderful website and trend following starter pack. The good men at Dunn Capital pointed me in your direction after I found them through Neils Karstrup-Larson. I have also listened to the Market Wizards books.

I have begun my trend following journey and naturally started out with MUCH too short of a time frame and got eaten up by the whipsaw that is trying to use trend in that environment. I’m CERTAIN you understand my plight with that particular issue. I have since gone searching for the right time frame to allow trend to work for me instead of me having to work for trend. Investing should not have to be a full time job, and I would like to remove some, if not most, of myself from the investing process. I do believe some human intervention makes sense as there are some things that are hard to robots or programmed processes to see, particularly at the level of the individual investor.

I’m taken a “trading” journey over the last 20 months where I have leveraged my ability to network with others to reach out to guys who used to trade in the futures pits and in options pits. I fully grasp the power of options and the only hurdle I have now is the application of them to maximize return and LIMIT RISK!

I have a little coding experience and can do some things within the tools I have.

My biggest problem from here is how many markets to cover, what time frame is ideal, how to build the right rules and the discipline around that (I’m much more well based here than I used to be, mindset is so important) and finally, how to make it cleaner and easier.

Where is the best place to start from here?

In my coming free time, I plan to consume all of the emails and information you have available.

Thank you.

Ethan K.

Here is the start!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
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Trading Technology
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“I would be at the mercy of scammers and conmen if I hadn’t come across your book…”

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Hey Michael,

I just want to start off by saying I appreciate your podcast and your books of truth and honesty. My name is Gracie and I’ve been looking into trading but it has been a mess. I was looking for advice on how to start but all I could see were terrible YouTube gurus and scammers; everyone was just trying to sell something and I could not for the life of me understand how to even begin trading.

Some people were saying they had the “secret strategy,” others said their course “solved” all problems, and others said they knew what the markets were going to do weeks in advance which dumbfounded me. I thought to myself “How do they know that?” I thought I needed to learn every fact about every market if I wanted to trade, which seemed completely unattainable. That’s when my dad recommended looking at Ed Seykota, and somehow along the way I found your book “Trend Following” and it has been a life-saver. I feel like I actually have a foundation now to begin trading and I’m so grateful.

With all of that being said, I’ve been listening to your podcasts as well, and at the end you said to email you for the steps on how to begin trend following, so here I am! I also had some questions I wanted to ask where I needed a bit of clarity. Maybe they’re stupid questions, I don’t know, but I figured if I could ask anyone it would be you, so here it goes:

1.) If I have a [number] trading account to start with, is that enough? I don’t want to get stopped out of a position so early because my stop is going to be quite close due to proper risk management on an account of that size. I don’t have a ton of money currently, but I figured if I practice proper trend following techniques and rules then gradually over time I could be profitable if disciplined.

2.) How long should I keep a position if it’s going against me? I’ve heard that if it’s going against you for more than two weeks then cut it, but I also heard that in trend following you can be down money for a while but it’s important to stick with it because that’s just the flow of the markets and that the big profits are right around the corner. I just need a bit of clarity on this.

3.) I’m wondering how I find a 55 day high or a 2 week low? Do I manually count the days and go through the charts? Or do I use a simple moving average? I am a total rookie please forgive my ignorance.

4.) How volatile of a market should I trade? I’m willing to take risks but don’t have endless capital.

I know for sure in the future I will have more questions as my trading journey continues, so I hope you reply to this email to help me out. Again, I really appreciate the work you do to bring the truth about trading to us. I would be at the mercy of scammers and conmen if I hadn’t come across your book.

Looking forward to hearing from you,
Gracie D.

Start here, here, here and here.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.