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“Then a couple of days ago I had a realization… I love commodities and I love trend trading. As I look back on all my trades, I’ve mostly made the really good money following trends…”

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Hey Michael,

I read your book 15 years ago or so and loved it. I had a small hedge fund back in 2000 and we did really well by trend following — particularly long Gold and short Bonds at the turn of the century. It was so small I flew it under the radar, but had some very, very happy clients (mostly farmers).

My next fund was a quant fund. I thought I had come up with a mathematical secret sauce for buy and sell signals. I passed the Series 65, hired an attorney and gave him a lot of money, and then started trading with my own money first. The back testing was averaging 35% annual avg ROI. The real life trading was closer to 2% (on a good day). 5000 lines of spreadsheet code later, tens of thousands invested and I folded up the show. I was definitely not going to trade other people’s money without an edge that I knew worked.

I got out of trading for about a decade, then started getting interested in the mathematics of options. I’ve gone fairly deep with [name]. Don is a super sharp guy and really understands options. I’ve learned a ton from him. But so far anyway, the iron condors, and selling high probability spreads, and in/out debit spreads, etc. just haven’t been making me much money. I just don’t see how his strategy can get me where I want to go.

Then a couple of days ago I had a realization, I love commodities and I love trend trading. As I look back on all my trades, I’ve mostly made the really good money following trends. Like last summer buying call options on CL as oil went negative in May… I got in at 25 and sold the calls for roughly 200% gains when crude rallied back above $40. It was a blast.

So I searched on trend trading and saw that you were still out there doing your thing… I got the audio book and am going through it again now. I’m looking forward to going back to the only trading style that has ever really worked consistently for me. Thanks for the re-inspiration!

Paul D

You are welcome!

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