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Seeing the Light when Trend Following

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Dear Mr. Covel,

My name is [Name]. I’ve been wanting to write to you to express my gratitude for what you do, so here it goes.

A little background on me so you know where I’m coming from. I live in [Name] and I’m a 27-year veteran officer of the [Name] Police Department.

Like most people I know, for the majority of my life I’ve been financially illiterate in regard to anything related to the stock market. I always found financial matters boring, therefore I paid little attention to them.

My interest perked up a bit while I was in the police academy. We had a one hour class one day with an instructor who discussed participation in the department’s 457B plan. Charts were passed out which graphed how much money we could expect at retirement when projecting an annual amount contributed combined with how many years in service times an average expected annual yield. When I looked in the lower right corner of that graph and saw that a long career with a maximum payroll deduction could exceed a million dollars, that was for me! I signed up immediately and have been maxed out in my 457B plan for most of the time since that eye-opening day.

My financial literacy at that point in my life was this: just pump money into my retirement plan, then when I retire I’ll be set. Maybe I’ll even be a millionaire. I still hadn’t fully recognized then how my retirement plan hinged on stock market performance.

Fast forward to about seven years ago and the purchase of my first iPhone. With my new-found interest in Apple I read a news article which related how Apple’s stock price had, over the course of a few years, increased over 30,000%. That was simply staggering to me. If I owned $5,000 worth of Apple stock at its lows I wouldn’t have to wait until I was retired to be a millionaire. With that revelation, my interest then turned to the stock market.

I had long since established a practice of determining, pursuing and achieving goals throughout my life, so I confidently embarked on a goal of becoming a successful trader/investor. With knowledge gained through my studies, it was only then that I began to grasp the mechanics of my retirement plan. Understanding for the first time then how my savings had been cut in half twice – the 2000 and 2008 bear markets – with my being virtually oblivious to it during those times sickened me. I’m grateful that I finally woke up and can confidently manage and safeguard the retirement accounts for my wife and I now that we are close to retirement. Up until recently it has been sheer dumb luck that we have benefited from the market’s current run to all-time highs.

Back to the trading. It has been a challenge, to say the least, but now in my sixth year I am finally practicing a strategy that works along with the discipline to execute it. A large percentage of that results from a handful of traders such as yourself who have shared what they’ve learned so that “home gamers” like me can find the means to succeed. I don’t think anyone who has studied or trained for a career in the financial world of trading truly understands the myriad of pitfalls novices face, or if they do they likely exploit them for their own gain. Fair enough, but it’s easy for me to see why most traders give up, blow up or wash out. I’m glad to count myself among the minority who have navigated successfully through the minefield where so many others have failed.

“Trend Following” has long been on my “must read” recommendation list. Congratulations on the publication of the new edition of your book; it’s a beauty. My old version is heavily highlighted, and I expect my new copy will be as well.

I’m also an avid fan of your podcasts. From those, and your writings, what I appreciate above all else is your genuine sense of honest, no bullshit, tell it like it is approach to getting your message across to those eager to listen and learn. Your podcasts are light years ahead of any others I listen to because you actually engage your guests with questions and comments pertinent to what they’re talking about, making them more enthusiastic about how they’re responding. Nothing ever comes off sounding scripted, and that’s damn refreshing and entertaining.

The main reason I mentioned that I was a police officer is because of an interesting parallel in regard to each of our paths through life. I can say that after 27 years of working the streets of [Name] there is a world which exists all around us which most people aren’t even aware of, and probably never will be. I tell family and friends true stories of experiences I have, and even as I’m speaking to them I can see the expression on their face belies the fact that they’re not fully believing what I’m saying, or at the very least I’m exaggerating. My experiences are often too contrary to experiences they’ve had in the world they live their lives in. They have no reference point to fathom the extremes of the world I work in.

I’ve never stepped foot on Wall Street, but the parallel I see between you and I is that, with my own unique perspective in mind, I can more readily believe and accept your no bullshit, tell it like it is interpretation of what really happens in the real world of Wall Street which most people aren’t aware of, and probably never will be. What you write and what you say sidesteps the sensationalized media noise of CNBC, et al., and shines a light on a world so contrary to those who accept CNBC noise as gospel that they can’t or won’t fathom the possibility of anything other than what they’re being spoon fed as truth.

The insight of real worlds existing beyond the worlds most people see is something I think we have in common, in our own ways. Accepting the wisdom of your unique perspective of the trading world has helped me greatly in garnering the measure of success which I’ve achieved thus far. For that, I thank you.

Thanks for taking the time to read this. I know it got a bit lengthy, but I guess I got on a roll.

If you’re ever in [Name] I’d be delighted to meet up with you somewhere for a bite to eat, or just to shake your hand and thank you in person for all you’ve done for me, if possible.

Thanks again!

Sincerely,

[Name]

Thanks! Awesome feedback. Made me smile.

Further Trend Following Articles and podcasts: Interview with Michael Gervais; Bryan Caplan Podcast; This Monkey’s gone to heaven; How Nicolas Darvas made $2 million Trend Following, and the Big Event Big Crash.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Review of the Trend Following New Edition by RCM Alternatives

Great review of the new edition of Trend Following from by RCM Alternatives:

We’re not sure if author Michael Covel has a tattoo across his back of a trend in a market like Sugar, but suffice to say the man loves him some trend following. We follow him on twitter @Covel and listen to his wonderful podcast from time to time – so when we saw the news that he had released a new and improved fifth edition of his book “Trend Following,” with its new tagline: “How to Make a fortune in Bull, Bear, and Black Swan Markets” we had to see what was new. We’ve read all of Covel’s books over the years but realized with this recent edition that we had never reviewed any of them on the blog, despite including them on our Required Reading list.

So we got to reading all 600+ pages. It’s a beast of a book, but at least there are lots of “pictures” in the form of charts and tables.

The Michael Covel new edition Review Highlights:

One of the more surprising additions to the new version hit us right off the bat – with the forward written by blogger/investment advisor/Bloomberg columnist Barry Ritholtz. Barry writes great stuff, but the surprising part is that he mostly writes against investing in anything except buy and hold stock market and real estate investments. And here he is doing the foreword for a book on decidedly not buy and hold folks – managed futures hedge fund strategies and legends. Perhaps he’s coming around, and understanding the math will unseat some biases for him.

Once you get into the meat of the book, Covel starts by digging into the principles behind trend following, which seems as old as the hills to us, ingrained in our psyche… BUT may be new to those who haven’t lived it.

Trend followers are traders, not investors – going long and short. Trend followers are systematic – removing emotion and fake news and bogus earnings reports, and all the rest. Price rules all. Price is the final determinant. Trend following can be a bumpy ride – indeed, it can be argued that the bumpy ride is what results with the payoff.

The best part of the book remains the highlighting of trend following legends. As Covel says, “the wise and most efficient way to understand trend following is not by learning rules…. But by reviewing every last detail of the traders who practice it…” and he gets right into it, starting with none other than the largest trend follower in the world, $20+ Billion Winton Capital’s David Harding (although he might not like that moniker). After that, there’s Boston Red Sox and Liverpool Football Club owner John Henry and a host of others famous in our line of work. As the line in ‘Top Gun’ goes, the list is long and distinguished, just like… “

Some of the best nuggets in here include John Henry starting with a $16,000 managed account; Ed Seykota’s amazing average of 60%, after fees, in his prop account between 1990 and 2000, and a copy of the 60+ questions asked of those applying for the famous turtle trader program. Next he goes into the “performance proof” for trend following, which he neatly packages here with tables upon tables of trend following managers long term returns spanning 100s to 100s of percent, and correctly noting that volatility doesn’t equal risk in a special way for trend followers, which tend to have their volatility to the upside. This section also highlights the “inevitable,” as Covel calls it, with trend following – the drawdown, where we get this great quote from Harding:

“…Managers are obliged to wear their worst historical drawdown like a scarlet letter for the rest of their lives.”

There’s also this great chart in the performance section when talking about drawdowns, Trend following gets a bad rap, but is essentially no riskier in terms of drawdowns than many others. We wish he would have included Ackman and his Valeant trade in there.

Trend Following Ledgends Draw Downs

Next up, are analyses of “Big Events, Crashes, & Panics” such as the Dot.com bust, Great Recession, and Long Term Capital Mgmt., etc. We were disappointed not to see our chart included, but he tackles it more from a manager by manager perspective instead of via an index. It’s worth noting most authors would have led with this, whereas it’s merely another characteristic of trend following to Covel. Sort of like the gravy on top of the already well-structured investing thesis.

The rest of the book is a bit more entertaining, straying away from pure talk about trend following with a nicely done chapter on the explosion of sports analytics following Billy Beane, MoneyBall, and the obvious corollaries to a systematic mathematical approach to markets. He also takes on Nate Silver, CNBC pundits, Warren Buffet, and the stock market in general in the chapter “Holy Grails,” while exploring the mindset and decision making chops needed to succeed in trend following (it’s not natural behavior). He finishes with a few hundred pages of actual rules for building your own trend following system, manager interviews, and reams upon reams of trend following research charts, data, and tables. Much of this the expanded part!

We certainly learned a thing of two after giving the book another read. Whether you’re a newbie to Trend Following or live by the trend following rules religiously, Covel’s books are the definitive source on all things trend following – from the history of the method and the strategy rules to the emotions needed to stick to it and the legendary money makers who’ve plied this trade for decades. So no matter if you watch energy prices out of curiosity or invest millions in managed futures strategies, this is the book which will help you understand the who, why, and how prices and those investments following them may be moving the way they are. Grab your copy here!

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

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Frequently Asked Questions
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Excellent work, excellent podcast…”

Feedback in:

Dear Michael Covel,

Thank you for your work. I recently found your podcast, and I’m listening to each one from the beginning, in chronological order.

So far I am up to number 28, Entrepreneurism: The Importance Of Not Doing What You’re Told.

Excellent work, excellent podcast.

Best wishes,
[Name]

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Your passion for [trading] definitely comes across in your work…”

Feedback in:

Hey Michael,

Just sending a quick note to let you know I’m really enjoying the podcast. Most recently the Tesla Dreams episode, but still working my way through all of it.

I’m finding a lot of value in your perspective, breaking away from crowd-think, and having a healthy distrust for the system/government, etc. I always feel some sort of mental growth, if that describes it properly, after one of your monologues.

Also currently reading ‘The Litte Book of Trading’ and enjoying it so far.

Anyway – thank you for continuing to put out the great content! Your passion for it definitely comes across in your work, which is why I’d imagine it’s received so well.

Cheers,
[Name]

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“My book shelves are creaking…”

Feedback in:

Dear Michael:

After many years in banking and by way of industry compliance regulation limited in what I can actually do with my money (I had already become very disillusioned with buy and hold “investing” only) I decided to investigate what was possible without loosing my day job. It seemed spot FX was about it. I started to look at trading and it has been the most remarkable journey. I have discovered so much about myself to the point where my wife commented that even my interaction with our two small children (3 & 4 years old) has changed completely. I can just accept what is in front of me and that they are nearly always just being children. No build up of steam! All of the key psychological lessons that are important to being a successful trader are equally important to practice in everyday life. The moment of now, take responsibility, look at what one does and does not control, it goes on.

Although I came to your work (starting with your book Trend Following) after I had already started along this path, you have expanded my horizons well beyond what I would ever have picked up and read without listening to your podcasts. I travel weekly with work, so find time to listen to many of your interviews and then often explore the written works of the interviewees. My book shelves are creaking, so now I need to give up the day job and trade full time, so I have the time to read all the wisdom contained therein.

Thank you for that inspiration.

Kind regards
[Name]

You are welcome!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“It’s not about the strategy–it’s about the human…”

Feedback in:

Good Morning Michael:

Pursuant to your request… “Has trend following changed your life in anyway?”

Enormously. I found your book 10 years ago and began studying it immediately. I had been an investor with multiple paths and little discipline. I am now (and have been for a while) a religious follower of trend following. It is a simple path, a disciplined path, to investing success. After reading the book 5 times I began to model trend following for stocks which I use today.

“Have you made money with trend following? If so, how much? Please be specific. I want to know if you’re taking full advantage of this powerful strategy.”

Yes. With your books I have been able to create a very process oriented approach for both equities and options. The disciplined learned through your writings has allowed me to “clean up” my past “investing” (not sure you can call it that) and get on the profitable road.

“Do you find this strategy difficult to execute?”

No. In my opinion it’s not about the strategy – it’s about the human. You gave me the map.

“Will you continue using this strategy?”

Yes. I am a passionate trend follower and have no intentions of leaving “the flock.”

Michael – Thank you. Your work, writings and passion have changed many lives or helped redirect us from where we were.

Have a great day.

Best,
[Name]

Thanks for the feedback!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Feedback

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I wanted to take a minute to tell you your podcast is great. I ordered your book, “Trend Following” and received it a couple of days ago. Nice work.

You asked if we started to make money with trend following. First, I should say I made all of my money investing following a value (and often contrarian) philosophy so trend following does not come naturally to me. Still, I started experimenting and developing my own momentum tools (backtesting in Matlab) following some of Meb Fabers ideas and I am getting the hang of this whole buy-high-sell-low thing 🙂 I am taking my time and will go through your book and (and most probably your turtle book) before I decide how I will introduce trend following into my investing framework (I feel lucky as my portfolio is large enough to accommodate partitioning a portion for trend following). I will be sure to let you know how things are going if/when I make the jump.

The only advice I would give is to be careful that the enthusiasm and passion you have for trend following does not come at the cost of denigrating other ways of investing (e.g. fundamental investing a la Stan Druckenmiller) as it may make you seem closed-minded when in fact you really seem extraordinarily curious.

Thanks again for all the great interviews.

Cheers
[Name]

Is Stan a trend follower?


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.