I think he’s referring to that guy who wrote Chavez was great…
[David Sirota] used to have a column in one of the daily papers here in the NW. He’s been an economic kook (technical term) for decades. Seems to think that the State owes us all something. Probably didn’t pay enough attention in college and flunked Econ 101 and 102.
Look, capitalism isn’t perfect (and you correctly point out that our current “crony capitalism” is a perverse version that will lead to bad outcomes), but all you have to do is compare Singapore and Cuba from the time that both started the current regimes (mid-1950’s) and the outcomes are so startlingly different that there can be no debate about which system is better. End of rant.
Hello there Michael, I’m a 20 year old Swede who really likes trading, as well as your work. First of all I would like to thank you dearly for your great podcasts and books. It surely is an entire joy every Monday & Friday when a new podcast comes out. More important, it seems quite amazing that you share more or less all the fundamental views I hold toward the world. Actually, I, just like you, read Ayn Rand at an early age which changed me a lot. And finding you who preserves those views is fantastic! Since I respect you so much I would like to ask you some things about trading. Now, I know you are really in to the trend following path, and I agree on most part of your analysis towards it. However, I believe that the fundamentals sometimes can be really important as well. For instance, one strategy that has served me well has been to short gold whenever the market tends to believe 3-4 rate hikes is on the play, and then go long on gold whenever the market tends to believe the rate hikes is off the table. This of course is related to the gold being priced in USD and then obviously gains when the USD fall. Now that might not be a fundamental strategy but more of a “market sentiment orientated strategy…” However, I wonder, do you ever use any fundamental analysis or do you only use technical tools such as SMA & EMA? Least but last, I would like to ask you if it would be possible to hold an interview with someone from Zero Hedge?
“Sometimes”?
“Tends to believe”?
“Whenever”?
“On the play”?
Everything I just put in [bold] is guessing? No specificity? There are exact rules with precise numbers? Or just intuition or hunches? See the problems here?
Response:
I really don’t get why you need to be so mean? Just because you need to have an 100% absolute concrete trading strategy doesn’t mean that everything else sucks. It’s just pathetic to respond to me like that, so regarding my initial question, never fucking mind!
—
This interchange offers observers a great chance to go investigate the work of Daniel Kahneman. Read my Email Debate on Drawdowns.
Michael, I just wanted to take a moment to thank you for your work. I have read most of your books and they are exactly what I needed. You see I am a veteran of the brokerage business (30 Years) and I have always known intuitively that something about the entire business was, and is, a lie. Analysts have no skin in the game, management doesn’t care if you make money, it’s all about assets under management that’s why they will never say sell. “Just buy more.” You see I used to look at CFA’s as the smartest people in the room. Now I know that they are really just financial weathermen trying to predict the future. Something that can’t be done. I have adopted for my clients a simple trend following rules based strategy, and it amazes me how hard it is to change minds. It is so simple they somehow think it can’t work. But I will keep plugging away and I know you will to. The business needs to change even the other brokers in my office look at me like a freak when I tell them to stop listening to analyst’s and “stop buying stocks that are going down.” Old habits die very, very hard. Just wanted to say thanks.
Thanks!
Looks like this feedback was inspired by my recent interview here.
“If you believe we are going to have a bear market, CTAs [aka trend following] will have a chance to make money in that environment, and in the meanwhile they offer non-correlated returns.”
And:
Such “systematic” funds [aka trend following], which surf trends using financial models and algorithms, do well whenever there is a clear direction for markets. Down markets are as good as uptrends, so long as they are clear, and in January and most of February, financial uncertainty proved profitable.
And:
Ewan Kirk, chief investment officer for Cantab Capital, said “while there is no such thing as a ‘typical’ systematic manager, many managers in our space have been short energies and long bonds since the beginning of the year”.
Leda Braga’s Systematica, which oversees $10.2bn, returned 9.9 per cent through the end of February, fuelled by bets on fixed income and against energy and equities.
My name is [Name]. I wanted to send you an email saying thank you for all of your publications about trend trading. I started trading when I was 15 based on all curiosity and now has grown into a strong passion. I’m 23 years old and have followed your work for 3 years now and now drastically increased my returns but also my view point on the market.
After the fund I worked at sold its assets, I was laid off. Once that happened I went through your books again and it has only kept me more focused on my goals of running my own fund one day. Your work is very appreciated and anyone I know that trades or wants to get into trading, I forward them to your website and to all the books and podcasts.
Not that I would expend an ounce of energy to defend any NY-based hedge fund (says the Chicago CTA), but as if this has just been a typical period since Mar ’09 “No more than 23% of active managers in any segment of the U.S. equities market outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 5 years” practically brings tears to my eyes – in laughter. And also hope. Hope that we are close to the next “unforeseen sequence of events” typically favorable for our preferred style of trading.
I am the guy who was a member years ago, then recently renewed. I was hounding you in regards to the TradeStation systems that you built. I was also the guy who has been doing yoga, but only with YouTube videos. I used the funds that I won from the super bowl boxes for private lessons at a studio. It was fantastic. My practice grew exponentially. Unfortunately Spring Break with the family came right after the private lessons and I have regressed. I started up again recently, but again only at home. The studio that I like has classes that do not match with my schedule at this time. I enjoy yoga, but my practice is not where I would like. I will need to change my schedule to get my practice to grow. As far as trading goes. I have been watching my portfolio of symbols using a charting software. I haven’t been able to get involved with Trade Station. My wife and I have been having some life changing discussions about our finances. She is starting to come round to understand Trend Following, but so far I haven’t been a good salesmen. I have been listening to your podcasts, and love them. I hadn’t used my phone to listen to them before and now I can’t wait for my commute! I look forward to seeing the notification that you have a new podcast available. I finally figured out how to download older episodes so I will have days of the podcast to listen to. Have you ever had Josh Brown on? One of the podcast that I recently listened to you read an article of Josh’s that was fantastic. It was about everyone being a technical trader. If you haven’t had him on, that would be one for the not miss category. I also loved the stuff that you have done recently with basketball. The part about the Celtics coach and the audio of Gregg Popovich was filled with some great nuggets. I guess this is a long (very long) winded way of saying thanks. I appreciate all the material that you have out there for your students and for all. Someday I will pull the trigger for the TS code. I see that as my only way because of my business.
Thanks again,
[Name]
Thanks.
Josh is a busy guy, but he knows I welcome him any time.
