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Category: Trend Following

Flight Plans with Trend Follower Kevin Bruce; No Battlestar Galactica Screens Needed

Posted on by Michael Covel

Trend follower Kevin Bruce once had the opportunity to go to New York and see one of the major brokerage firms’ trading floors. He found it like Battlestar Galactica, with more screens and lights than you could imagine. He decided: “I couldn’t think in this environment.” You can never make decisions when the market is open; everything is like a flight plan, it’s got to be pre-planned. Trying to make decisions when the market is open is going to lead to emotional decisions. Everything must be thought out ahead of time. Know what you are going to do if it goes up, if it goes down, and if it doesn’t do anything. When all that is figured out, you put your system on autopilot. It almost sounds too simple, but that’s the way you need to do it, and that’s why you don’t need to stress out about anybody’s opinion.

More? See: The Little Book of Trading.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Martin Klitzner of Sunrise Capital: In Memoriam

Posted on by Michael Covel

In putting together my book The Little Book of Trading I had the opportunity to talk with most of the office at Sunrise Capital. Marty Klitzner was one of the first people I met with there. He was President of Sunrise. From my perspective one of his roles was clearly as gatekeeper and I later learned that he was a good deal of the business success behind the firm. Unfortunately, Marty passed away on April 14, 2012 in Del Mar, CA.

I remain always thankful that men such as Marty, men with decades of trend following experience, would give me their time and knowledge.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 11: Tim Pickering Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Tim Pickering
Tim Pickering

My guest today is Tim Pickering, founder/president and lead portfolio manager of Auspice Capital. Pickering has over 15 years of commodity and financial trading experience. Prior to forming Auspice, Pickering was Vice President of Options Trading at Shell Trading Gas and Power in the Houston and Calgary offices. He began his career at TD Securities in Toronto in their elite trading development program and gained experience in a wide expanse of capital market products including foreign exchange, bonds, money markets and derivatives. Ultimately, Pickering held the Senior Trader position for the energy derivatives portfolio. He has extensive experience trading OTC and exchange traded options, futures, swaps and quantitative trend following systems.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Some of his beginnings
  • “Black boxes”
  • Indexing
  • Classical vs. “next generation” trend following

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Ep. 7: Mike Shannon Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Michael Shannon
Michael Shannon

My guests today are Michael Shannon and Jim Byers.

Shannon, an original Turtle trader trained by Richard Dennis. He was featured in Michael Covel’s The Complete TurtleTrader.

Byers is a trader and investor. In the 2006-2008 period, Byers started studying trend following; since then, he’s started a fund with his partner, Todd Miller.

The topics are the Turtle story and Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Shannon’s experience in the Turtle program with Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt
  • Historical insights and anecdotes regarding the legendary Turtle story
  • Shannon’s unlikely background
  • The personalities of Dennis and Eckhardt
  • Why Turtles with outsider backgrounds were generally more successful; and whether or not Dennis and Eckhardt were inspired by the film, “Trading Places”
  • How trend following can still be a winning game even if you aren’t right the majority of the time
  • More in depth “light bulb” moments that Byers has had since taking up trend following

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Ep. 5: Nick Radge Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Nick Radge
Nick Radge

My guest today is Nick Radge. Nick has been trading and investing since 1985. During this time Nick has worked for numerous international investment banks and spent time on the trading floor of the Sydney Futures Exchange. In 1998 Nick returned to Australia and started his own hedge fund and until 2005 he was an Associate Director at Macquarie Bank.

The topic is his book Unholy Grails – A New Road to Wealth.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Nick’s beginnings
  • The analogy of hitchhiking to trading
  • The necessary emotional constitution needed to successfully stick with a trend following trading strategy
  • The popularity of algorithmic trading jargon
  • Risk management

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The Winton Papers Revisited

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

“Hi Michael, as you know I love your work and keep buying copies of your books for friends, family and clients. I know you say that persistence pays off and I am working hard on implementing trend following in my business and also in my investing life. I have been trying to hunt down those Winton Papers that Mr. Harding gifted to you. In Australia [name] has a Managed Account with Winton that they allow retail investors to invest in, so we have started placing client monies with Winton. I have had a number of clients call in happy that Winton and Aspect made 10% last year when Aussie equities dropped 10%. I have asked all the [name] associated with Winton if they have seen [The Winton Papers]. No such luck. This morning I attended a presentation where Winton was one of the managers. As usual Winton was last so I had to listen to two other fund managers explain how great they were even though their 5-year returns were negative (both fundamentalists). Winton was represented directly by staff. One was [name], who is a wonderful lady who had just started. I have spoken to her previously…and had inquired if she had seen the papers. She came back questioning if the “The Winton Papers” were a figment of my imagination. More importantly, employee number [blank] at Winton (that was used in his intro) was [name]. He managed to confirm that yes they existed (which I already knew; see your blog 2010/11/06), however, he did not have a copy. So I guess what I am asking is there any chance you have a soft copy of the papers? Or would you like to sell your copy? Or maybe I could rent them for a period of time? Anyways hope business and family are going well. Thanks in advance. Kind regards, [name]”

Yes, I have a copy of The Winton Papers, but I have not been granted permission to distribute.

Note: David Harding of Winton Capital is profiled in my book The Little Book of Trading. He also appears in my film Broke. He has made $1 billion USD from trend following.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Follower David Druz on Systems

Posted on by Michael Covel

From The Little Book of Trading trend follower David Druz has a plan:

Once a system’s algorithms and parameters are established, the system must be followed exactly and religiously. A system cannot be second-guessed or used intermittently. Values of variables cannot be altered. Parameters cannot be arbitrarily changed. A robust system works over many types of market conditions and over many timeframes. It works in German Bund futures and it works in wheat. It works when tested over 1950-1960 or over 1990-2000. Robust systems tend to be designed around successful trading tactics not designed around specific types of markets or market action. And here is the amazing thing about robust systems: The more robust a system, the more volatile it tends to be! Druz gives this advice: “There are whole families of trend trading ideas that seem to work forever on any market. The down side is they are very volatile because they are never curve-fit. They’re never exactly fit to any particular market or market condition. But over the long run, they do extract money from the market. You want to be focused on how you divvied up the risk in your portfolio, how much risk you take in each market, how many contracts you trade in each market, that’s the stuff that really counts…if you have money management wired, you can let volatility go because you know it doesn’t have any correlation with the risk of ruin. You can use volatility to your advantage.”

Wise.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.