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Category: Trend Following

Study the Errors of Those Before You

Posted on by Michael Covel

“Science is the systematic classification of experience.”
George Henry Lewes

“It is necessary for you to learn from others’ mistakes. You will not live long enough to make them all yourself.”

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback Always Welcome… Especially When It’s Good!

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Mike, I picked up your podcast [feed] a month ago or so and have really been enjoying the content. I have since ordered a couple of your books and look forward to reading them. Thank you for sharing your thoughts & creating a platform for such objective, honest, and critical thinking across a broad range of topics. I ran across a book that you might find interesting by Jordan Ellenberg, “How to Not Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking”. If you have read it, I would be interested in your thoughts or reflections. If not, I hope you get the chance to read it.

Thank you again for sharing!
[Name]

Have not seen it. Will take a look! Thanks for the nice words.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 294: Nigol Koulajian and Donald Wieczorek Interviews with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Nigol Koulajian and Donald Wieczorek
Nigol Koulajian and Donald Wieczorek

My guests today are Nigol Koulajian and Donald Wieczorek.

Nigol Koulajian’s firm is Quest Partners, LLC and is approaching one billion AUM. Koulajian has a very interesting take on trend following–specifically his take on replicating famous trend following strategies.

Donald Wieczorek is the Founder and President of Purple Valley Capital, Inc. He officially launched PVC and began managing client capital professionally using his systematic risk management strategy. He is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Koulajian and Covel discuss Koulajian’s background and entrepreneurism within Lebanese culture; how Koulajian got his start, and how he found his way into the systematic strategies he employs today; the influence of Van Tharp; the importance of practices like transcendental meditation and yoga on the mental side of trading and in the context of Koulajian’s work today as a fund manager. the S&P 500 as a trading system; crowd psychology; replication strategies; price action as a trigger for different strategies; volatility, volatility compression, and why volatility is not the way to measure risk in the markets anymore; the Flash Crash; and trend following as a hedge to equity risk.
  • Covel and Wieczorek discuss Wieczorek’s early track record; Salem Abraham; drawdowns; Wieczorek’s first exposure to trend following; why losing early in your trading career can be a good thing; why you don’t need to predict market movement to make money; Jack Schwager and the Market Wizards series; and why systematic trading is more than just the technical system. Next, Covel and Wieczorek break apart some of Wieczorek’s monthly performance windows (trendfollowing.com/don.pdf), picking apart the psychology and context of certain months in Wieczorek’s career. Covel and Wieczorek continue on to talk about correlation between famous trend following traders; volatility and risk; and the value of crisis alpha.

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 292: Christopher Cruden Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Christopher Cruden
Christopher Cruden

My guest today is Christopher Cruden, Cruden has been in the trend following space for over 25 years. In 1988 he became a Director of Adam, Harding and Lueck Asset Management Ltd (AHL) in London, a famed trend following shop. He is currently the head of Insch Capital Management.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why price is an unimpeachable fact
  • Early “lightbulb” moments that brought Cruden to the style of trading he practices today
  • The notion of going currency only
  • Why Cruden’s program is akin to a raincoat in bad weather
  • Riding increased volatility and increased directional trending
  • Getting clients to understand that you cannot force a system to make money
  • Benchmark selection and time period selection
  • Why the S&P 500 is a trading system; performance drivers
  • The duration of trades
  • Why if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it
  • How Cruden’s strategy would change if Europe reverted back to before the introduction of the Euro
  • How markets teach humility
  • Why Cruden only trades once a day

Listen to this episode:

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How the Markets Tempt Us Into Making Mistakes

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

Saw this article and immediately thought about trend following. There are the obvious aspects like being systematic, following the trend lines and thinking for the longer term. The interesting part was the discussion of the retiree and the temptation of the markets to derail his disciplined approach. I see the temptation of the markets being the greatest enemy to the discipline required to be a trend-following trader. Please enjoy.

Thanks,
[Name]

PS. Thanks for you all your work. It’s really appreciated.

Thanks.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 291: Steven Kotler Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel

 

Steven Kotler
Steven Kotler

My guest today is Steven Kotler, an American bestselling author, journalist, and entrepreneur. His articles have appeared in over 70 publications, including The New York Times Magazine, LA Times, Wired, GQ, Discover, Popular Science, Outside, Men’s Journal, Details and National Geographic Adventure. He is best known for his non-fiction books, including the New York Times bestseller Abundance, A Small Furry Prayer, and West of Jesus.

The topic is his book The Rise of Superman: Decoding the Science of Ultimate Human Performance.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Synonyms for flow
  • Flow in basketball and other sports
  • Group flow
  • Pattern recognition
  • The neurological explanation for flow
  • The four stages of flow
  • Why flow is not just a binary state
  • Spiritual experiences compared to flow states
  • Brain activity during flow states; the “deep now”
  • Getting to the flow state with drugs
  • The flow state and the act of being on stage
  • Why you need to take risks to get into flow
  • Social fear, risk, and pain vs. physical fear, risk, and pain
  • Method acting, screen presence, and flow
  • The military and flow research
  • Risk and comfort
  • The balance between challenges and skills
  • Getting comfortable with being uncomfortable
  • The fight or flight mindset
  • Future research into flow

Listen to this episode:

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Funeral for a Friend?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Insch Capital Management SA gives some trend following food for thought:

The bell tolls. The death of trend following has been announced. The grave has been dug and the obituary has been published. Dust to dust…

The mourners are gathered by the graveside. Tear reddened eyes distinguish the truly saddened from the less saddened who smirk to themselves in their familiar “I told you so” way. (At last! A prediction come true!)

This is a painfully sad affair. Trend following is dead. Again.

Cheer up! Our suspicion is that trend following is not dead. Our suspicion is that no resurrection is required.

This suspicion is not based on a judgment, a fundamental view or (even worse) a prediction from a besuited soothsayer. It is based on the evidence of the numbers. The statistical evidence is of continued life, not the eternal darkness of death.

Read all (PDF).

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.