Michael Covel interviews Ewan Kirk on today’s podcast. Kirk is the head of Cantab Capital and has brought his firm from $30M AUM in 2006 to over $5B today. Kirk employs several strategies but clearly uses a trend following foundation. Covel and Kirk discuss how consistent and predictable profits are the Holy Grail–you’re never going to get there. Covel and Kirk also explore Kirk’s background, and how someone with a PhD in mathematical physics ends up going to work for Goldman Sachs; why computer programming is “today’s literacy”; standing out from the crowd; trend following in the European scene vs. America; weighting positions based on risk; talking to clients and explaining that losses are statistically inevitable; whether the demand for discretionary traders is waning; how discretionary traders look at a trader like Kirk who is 100% systematic; why discretionary intervention in a systematic trading strategy disqualifies it from being truly systematic; proving a strategy as broken rather than proving that it’s right; why randomness is everything; uncertainty and convictions about technique; capturing the realism of the world in your trading strategy; what actually benefits the economy, society, and the world; seeking client feedback and understanding a client’s drivers; and the importance of consistent marginal improvements.
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My guests today are Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink.
Gigerenzer is currently director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy.
Wansink is the John Dyson Professor of Marketing and the Director of the Cornell Food and Brand Lab in the Department of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University.
The topics are Gigerenzer’s book Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions and Wansink’s book Slim by Design: Mindless Eating Solutions for Everyday Life.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Covel and Gigerenzer discuss the differences between Daniel Kahneman and Gigerenzer’s views; heuristics vs. statistics; the notion of medical check-ups, prostate cancer, and the PSA test; taking risks, and instincts vs. expert advice; relative vs. absolute risk; Benjamin Franklin’s ledger, heuristics, and romance; intuition, facts, unconscious intelligence, and gut decisions; being risk savvy and ordering in upscale restaurants, why Risk Savvy is an alternative to many other outlooks; the two tools to being risk savvy; the gaze heuristic and athletics; complex problems and simple heuristics.
Covel and Wansink discuss weight and obesity; our genes and environment as an effect on our health; “doing what skinny people do” and studying buffets; modeling the behavior of slim people; the advantages of chopsticks; the power of the grocery shopper of the household; triggers and tips to avoid unhealthy behavior that happens in restaurants; correlations between where you sit in a restaurant and eating choices; the three types of people in the context of nutrition; the influence of the environment on our eating habits; being slim by design vs. being slim by willpower; pursuing happiness vs. pursuing a purpose.
Listen to Susan Peirce Thompson’s views on dealing with willpower and using healthy eating habits to maintain the mental strength required for making financial decisions.
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Mike, I picked up your podcast [feed] a month ago or so and have really been enjoying the content. I have since ordered a couple of your books and look forward to reading them. Thank you for sharing your thoughts & creating a platform for such objective, honest, and critical thinking across a broad range of topics. I ran across a book that you might find interesting by Jordan Ellenberg, “How to Not Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking”. If you have read it, I would be interested in your thoughts or reflections. If not, I hope you get the chance to read it.
Thank you again for sharing!
[Name]
Have not seen it. Will take a look! Thanks for the nice words.
My guests today are Nigol Koulajian and Donald Wieczorek.
Nigol Koulajian’s firm is Quest Partners, LLC and is approaching one billion AUM. Koulajian has a very interesting take on trend following–specifically his take on replicating famous trend following strategies.
Donald Wieczorek is the Founder and President of Purple Valley Capital, Inc. He officially launched PVC and began managing client capital professionally using his systematic risk management strategy. He is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.
The topic is Trend Following.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Koulajian and Covel discuss Koulajian’s background and entrepreneurism within Lebanese culture; how Koulajian got his start, and how he found his way into the systematic strategies he employs today; the influence of Van Tharp; the importance of practices like transcendental meditation and yoga on the mental side of trading and in the context of Koulajian’s work today as a fund manager. the S&P 500 as a trading system; crowd psychology; replication strategies; price action as a trigger for different strategies; volatility, volatility compression, and why volatility is not the way to measure risk in the markets anymore; the Flash Crash; and trend following as a hedge to equity risk.
Covel and Wieczorek discuss Wieczorek’s early track record; Salem Abraham; drawdowns; Wieczorek’s first exposure to trend following; why losing early in your trading career can be a good thing; why you don’t need to predict market movement to make money; Jack Schwager and the Market Wizards series; and why systematic trading is more than just the technical system. Next, Covel and Wieczorek break apart some of Wieczorek’s monthly performance windows (trendfollowing.com/don.pdf), picking apart the psychology and context of certain months in Wieczorek’s career. Covel and Wieczorek continue on to talk about correlation between famous trend following traders; volatility and risk; and the value of crisis alpha.
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My guest today is Christopher Cruden, Cruden has been in the trend following space for over 25 years. In 1988 he became a Director of Adam, Harding and Lueck Asset Management Ltd (AHL) in London, a famed trend following shop. He is currently the head of Insch Capital Management.
The topic is Trend Following.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Why price is an unimpeachable fact
Early “lightbulb” moments that brought Cruden to the style of trading he practices today
The notion of going currency only
Why Cruden’s program is akin to a raincoat in bad weather
Riding increased volatility and increased directional trending
Getting clients to understand that you cannot force a system to make money
Benchmark selection and time period selection
Why the S&P 500 is a trading system; performance drivers
The duration of trades
Why if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it
How Cruden’s strategy would change if Europe reverted back to before the introduction of the Euro
How markets teach humility
Why Cruden only trades once a day
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