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Ep. 1026: Richard Brennan Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Richard Brennan
Richard Brennan

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My guest today is Richard Brennan, a trader, risk manager and fund compliance professional. Given his leaning towards the quantifiable and verifiable, Richard is a strong advocate for systematic and diversified trading styles that avoid the need for discretionary decision making. He’s based in Australia.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • COVID-19 pandemic in Australia
  • COVID-19 vaccines
  • About Richard Brennan
  • Trend Following Book
  • Dunn Capital Track Record
  • TurtleTrader Trading Story
  • Trend Following Performance
  • Bill Dunn and Martin Bergin
  • Jerry Parker

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

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“Since 2013 I have developed a highly efficient trend following algorithm. However, I am struggling with how and when to apply it using probabilities…”

Feedback in:

Dear Michael, I’ve been listening to your podcast for almost a decade. Since 2013 I have developed a highly efficient trend following algorithm. However, I am struggling with how and when to apply it using probabilities. I think the answer lays in the probability calculation mentioned in Larry Hite’s book ‘The Rule’ (observable fact divided by no. Times observable fact followed by event). However, I’m still unsure how to use probabilities with what I see occurring around market events. When I get the direct right in backtesting, the algo will risk 1.5% to make between 40 and 140%. Can you offer me any advice or guidance with regards to using probabilities or the application of probability theory?

What is your strategy exactly? Time frame?

My current strategy is – be in the market either long or short. (Get in the game) as Larry put it. I look for confluences with net COT position and MCRI seasonal tendency. It takes at least 15 days for the algo to build a position and get stopped out in profit if the move is in favour. I’m currently trading EURUSD and recently adapted the algo to XAGUSD and WTIUSD.

I can’t help. What you are doing is so far away from trend following (and Larry Hite) it could be on another planet. I would toss that strategy.

Well that was certainly thought provoking! Thank you. Yes I agree, it needs to be ditched and probabilities applied. That’s the bit I’m trying to figure out.

The issue is strategy. Why not go trend following and go robust?

Isn’t a trend following strategy based on probabilities though?

Trend following is based on following the trends.

Since our last communication I’ve worked tirelessly on my trend following systematisation and diversification. I’ve been trading over 20 Markets, and things were looking up! However, it appears the MT4 broker has caught on to my trend following ways and has decided to upset the “probabilities.” I’ve listened to you from the start. I value your no BS approach to life. Can you provide any fatherly encouragement?

If your broker is somehow the reason your trend following is failing? You are not trend following. Bottom line I have no idea what you are doing.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“I don’t want to recreate the wheel and figured it would be good to start with a system with a proven track-record…”

Feedback in:

Michael: I’m new to trading, no experience but like the concepts presented. I don’t want to recreate the wheel and figured it would be good to start with a system with a proven track-record and one that removes the psychological aspects of trading…thanks for your efforts in spreading the word.

Ryan

Start here. Then here.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Could you please tell me really good technical indicators to spot and indicate the trend…”

Feedback in:

Could you please tell me really good technical indicators to spot and indicate the trend?

Best Wishes,
Steven

If you will be a trend following trader you need:

  • Exact rules for selecting your tracking portfolio.
  • Exact rules for entering your trades at the right time.
  • Exact rules for exiting your trades with a loss.
  • Exact rules for exiting your trades with a profit.
  • Exact rules for how much money to bet on each trade.

The three best indicators for a trend following trader are: Price, Price and Price. If you think I’m joking you have more work to do!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 1025: Five Quick Trend Chapters with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue Five Quick Trend Chapters with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

“My biggest challenge is knowing when to sell; either when the stock keep climbing up or when it keeps sliding down…”

Feedback in:

Hi Michael, My biggest challenge is knowing when to sell; either when the stock keep climbing up or when it keeps sliding down. That said, I have read half of your books and I am considering your Flagship Trend Following system. Regards, Matt

You need:

  • Exact rules for selecting your tracking portfolio.
  • Exact rules for entering your trades at the right time.
  • Exact rules for exiting your trades with a loss.
  • Exact rules for exiting your trades with a profit.
  • Exact rules for how much money to bet on each trade.

Those rules solve the issues you describe.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“The hard COVID lockdown here in Melbourne Australia was a perfect opportunity to test the water with trading…”

Feedback in:

Hello Michael,

I have entered the world of trading since last year during the hard COVID lockdown here in Melbourne Australia in 2020. It was a perfect opportunity to test the water with trading.

Something I was always intrigued to do.

I had a lot of fun during my first week. I grew my account from $10k to 30k without knowing what I was doing. Made thousands in a night with a maximum drawdown over 70% at some point.

It was a roller coaster. Somehow instinctively I was scalping the markets on breakouts. Mind you I didn’t even know what ‘scalping’ and ‘breakout’ were back then.

I was merely trading on gut feelings, picking up momentum as I could sense from seeing the candles expanding rapidly on breakouts and jumping onto it as if I were riding a wave with huge position sizes talking about 1 to 5 CDF XAU contracts at a time on a $10k account. It was totally insane if I look back on what I was doing.

The quick money I made was the worst thing that had happened. The end result of course was a tragedy. I blew my account in the second week plus lost nearly $50k within 2 months.

That really hurt as it was a substantial amount of our family savings with all the unknown with my business during COVID.

However that experience didn’t discourage me from trading, and since then I started researching on different technical analysis techniques, reading all the Market Wizards, Turtle Traders (and now Trend Following) and taking in as much tips from past successful traders on how to trade and exercise risk management.

Then I came up with a trading methodology using Moving Averages and Stochastic to identify start and end trends. Simulating trades for nearly 6 months on demo accounts before recently started trading on a small account.

The answer to your question is, despite having back tested these methodologies and proving them highly profitable on paper (or excel sheet). But when putting the systems into practice, I couldn’t make any profit out of it, despite the system still gives me a good edge of picking up a trend (if I trace back every signal retrospectively). I just couldn’t get my head around why I am not able to profit. Something must be wrong with my execution. I am dying for an answer, as I can see the money there and they can be quite predictable.

Michael, if you do read this email, I would be very keen to have a chat to get some guidance if you do have time.

I am even seriously considering a career in trading as I just love it so much, and potentially giving my consulting business which is generating reasonably good income.

I am quite determined to be a successful trader.

Hope to hear from you.

Best regards,
L.

I don’t know if you are trading as a trend following trader. These resources will answer that question.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.