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“The guiding principle of our work is figuring out a way to deal with uncertainty.”

Excerpt:

Q: What’s the guiding principle of your work now?

A: The guiding principle of our work is figuring out a way to deal with uncertainty. That’s what we deal with every day—an uncertain future. What’s going to happen on the next pitch is uncertain. We can’t figure out exactly what’s going to happen, but if we can get our arms around a range of possibilities, that gives us a much better chance to at least make better decisions. We’re still going to be wrong a lot, but hopefully we’re wrong less often now than we were 10 years ago. But we’re never going to be in a situation where our analysis tells us what’s going to happen. These are human beings interacting with one another in a highly stressful situation. So we’re never going to be perfectly predictive. But that’s what makes baseball interesting, makes it emotional.

Trend following 101…too.

Source: Go.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 168: Larry Williams Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Larry Williams
Larry Williams

My guest today is Larry Williams, an American author, stock and commodity trader, and politician from the state of Montana.

The topic is trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • IRS and Congress
  • Targeting of individuals and groups by the government
  • Facing the government in a court case and negotiating with the IRS
  • How Williams approached trading at the beginning, and his motivations to do so
  • How growing up in Montana affected Williams personally
  • How Williams came to run for Senate and his reasoning for doing so
  • The importance of speculation, and the difference between speculation and gambling
  • How Williams made the migration from stocks to thinking about futures
  • How Williams approached the emotional and money management sides of the equation
  • Risk control
  • Understanding what kind of system “fits” you best
  • The changing condition of markets
  • Keeping it simple
  • The importance of learning from injury
  • How Williams came to his Libertarian mindset

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Picking which shares to buy and sell is not necessarily about being right all the time.

From an article:

This leads into the second finding: picking which shares to buy and sell is not necessarily about being right all the time. Even the best fund managers are frequently wrong, and Lagrange estimates his team are correct between 45 and 65 per cent of the time. The trick is to make more money when they are right than they lose when they are wrong. From Savage’s analysis, he says his team makes 1.1-1.2 times more when right than they lose when they are wrong – enough to make good money even if their odds of being right are no better than 50/50.

Trend following 101.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 162: Tim Dyer Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

My guest today is Tim Dyer, an RIA (Registered Investment Advisor) in La Jolla, CA. Dyer has also seen the brokerage side of the world too, shares insights regarding how these worlds work, and how clients navigate the waters of professional investing advice.

The topic is personal investments.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • What an RIA does for the average investor
  • The difference between trend following fund managers and the RIA world
  • The difference between hiring Merrill Lynch and hiring an independent RIA
  • Fiduciary suitability
  • Black swan protection
  • Benchmark issues
  • Warren Buffett declaring The Fed as history’s greatest hedge fund
  • How the Internet might open up the RIA world, and the value of human-based advice in the RIA world
  • The disingenuousness of focusing only on the benefits, and failing to see the risks
  • Why some might say it “feels like 1999” today

h2 style=”text-align: left;”>Listen to this episode:

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The Best Traders Use Just One Data Point Per Week

Best traders use just one data pointe per week, Michael Covel quote, Trend Following trading, Turtle Trading


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Where To Start in Trend Following…

Feedback in:

Hi Michael Covel, my name is [name] and I graduated from Rutgers University last year with a BA in Mathematics and Economics. I have been following your podcast and have read a couple of your books and am very interested in pursuing a career in trend following. I was always disenchanted with the investment banking paradigm, but really believe in the power of trend following. I have been following the markets for the past 5 years and have invested some of my own money during that time. What are some good ways for a guy just starting out to get his foot in the door in this industry? I believe the experience that comes with working for an experienced trend follower would be invaluable. I look forward to hearing from you soon.

Read Linchpin by Seth Godin.

Read Atlas Shrugged.

Read Jack Schwager’s Market Wizard books.

Read my four books.

Listen to all podcast episodes.

Knock on doors if you want a job.

If you want to be a trend trader? Get a system and start trading.

Short list–lots of advice.

Note: Be prepared to never be hired by a trend trader. Then what? Back to my list. You can also consider other options here.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Richard Dennis Quote: Trading is More Teachable Than Ever Imagined

Stock trading is not an inborn talent, it is teachable. Quote by Richard Dennis, the father of Turtle Trading

Learn more about Richard Dennis.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.