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Fundamentals and The Death Cross: Confusion Always

Need a refresher about the fundamental mindset? From Trend Following:

There are two basic theories that are used to trade in the markets. The first theory is fundamental analysis. It is the study of external factors that affect the supply and demand of a particular market. Fundamental analysis uses factors such as weather, government policy, domestic and foreign political and economic events, price-earnings ratios, and balance sheets to make buy and sell decisions. By monitoring “fundamentals” for a particular market, one can supposedly predict a change in market direction before that change has been reflected in the price of the market with the belief that you can then make money from that knowledge. The vast majority of Wall Street uses fundamental analysis alone. They are the academics, brokers, and analysts who spoke highly of the new economy during the dot-com craze. These same Wall Street players brought millions of players into the real estate and credit bubbles of 2008. Millions bought into their rosy fundamental projections and rode bubbles straight up with no clue how to exit when those bubbles finally burst. Consider an exchange between a questioner and then President Bush at a press conference:

Q: “I wanted to ask you [Mr. President], I’m a financial advisor here in Fredericksburg [Virginia], and I wanted to ask you what your thoughts are on the market going forward… and if any of your policies would make any difference?”

The President: “No (laughter), I’m not going to answer your question. If I were an investor, I would be looking at the basic fundamentals of the economy. Early on in my Presidency, somebody asked me about the stock market, and I thought I was a financial genius, and it was a mistake (laughter). The fundamentals of this nation are strong. One of the interesting developments has been the role of exports in overall GDP growth. When you open up markets for goods and services, and we’re treated fairly, we can compete just about with anybody, anywhere. And exports have been an integral part, at least of the 3rd quarter growth. But far be it for me—I apologize—for not being in the position to answer your question. But I don’t think you want your President opining on whether the Dow Jones is going to—(laughter)—be going up or down.”

Now, consider a recent email exchange with a Trend Following Radio listener that expands out in a better direction:

Listener: Honestly, my entire career has changed because of your podcast now that I think about it b/c it was my first exposure to trend following. A couple years ago I listened to your podcast for the first time and didn’t like it, too closed minded. Then I listened again… and again. My mind gradually continued to open and expand.

Covel: Thanks for the nice words.

Listener: Great interview with Campbell Harvey. Definitely have him on again sometime. Hearing about your trip to China was also great as we are in the middle of working on an opportunity over there.

Concluding:

Listener: I agree with your comments on your death cross podcast that Cliff’s tweets seemed a bit odd… But then again, I don’t understand what he is talking about with at least half of his tweets. It indeed is a bit hard for people to understand that trend following is different than predictive technical analysis. I cringe when people ask me “so what are your indicators telling you”. You’ve done a good job at attempting to articulate it. Keep it up. I’m no different than you, I just looked at the data when I came across trend following. Then when I started adding it to a traditional portfolio and found a couple good managers like Chesapeake and [name] it was a no brainer. I guess for some that’s not enough. That’s fine with me.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ed Seykota: Greatest Quotes

A big thanks to Steve Burns for the list.

Ed Seykota wisdom:

  • “If I am bullish, I neither buy on a reaction, nor wait for strength; I am already in. I turn bullish at the instant my buy stop is hit, and stay bullish until my sell stop is hit. Being bullish and not being long is illogical.”
  • “Fundamentalists figure things out and anticipate change. Trend followers join the trend of the moment. Fundamentalists try to solve their feelings. Trend followers join their feelings and observe them evolve and dis-solve.”
  • “The feelings we accept and enjoy rarely interfere with trading.”
  • “Systems don’t need to be changed. The trick is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible”
  • “It can be very expensive to try to convince the markets you are right.”
  • “There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders.”
  • “I would add that I consider myself and how I do things as a kind of system which, by definition, I always follow.”
  • “Systems trading is ultimately discretionary. The manager still has to decide how much risk to accept, which markets to play, and how aggressively to increase and decrease the trading base as a function of equity change.”
  • “Trying to trade during a losing streak is emotionally devastating. Trying to play “catch up” is lethal.”
  • “The elements of good trading are: 1, cutting losses. 2, cutting losses. And 3, cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.”
  • “Losing a position is aggravating, whereas losing your nerve is devastating.”
  • “The markets are the same now as they were five to ten years ago because they keep changing – just like they did then.”
  • “Luck plays an enormous role in trading success. Some people were lucky enough to be born smart, while others were even smarter and got born lucky.”
  • “Having a quote machine is like having a slot machine at your desk – you end up feeding it all day long. I get my price data after the close each day.”
  • “A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.”
  • “If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses.”
  • “It is a happy circumstance that when nature gives us true burning desires, she also gives us the means to satisfy them. Those who want to win and lack skill can get someone with skill to help them.”
  • “Risk no more that you can afford to lose, and also risk enough so that a win is meaningful.”
  • “Dramatic and emotional trading experiences tend to be negative. Pride is a great banana peel, as are hope, fear, and greed. My biggest slip-ups occurred shortly after I got emotionally involved with positions.”
  • “Be sensitive to subtle differences between ‘intuition’ and ‘into wishing’.”
  • “The trading rules I live by are: 1. Cut losses. 2. Ride winners. 3. Keep bets small. 4. Follow the rules without question. 5. Know when to break the rules.”
  • “I usually ignore advice from other traders, especially the ones who believe they are on to a “sure thing”. The old timers, who talk about “maybe there is a chance of so and so,” are often right and early.”
  • “I set protective stops at the same time I enter a trade. I normally move these stops in to lock in a profit as the trend continues. Sometimes, I take profits when a market gets wild. This usually doesn’t get me out any better than waiting for my stops to close in, but it does cut down on the volatility of the portfolio, which helps calm my nerves. Losing a position is aggravating, whereas losing your nerve is devastating.”
  • “I intend to risk below 5 percent on a trade, allowing for poor executions.”
  • “I don’t judge success, I celebrate it. I think success has to do with finding and following one’s calling regardless of financial gain.” (On losing streaks and over-trading) “Acting out this drama could be exciting. However, it also seems terribly expensive. One alternative is to keep bets small and then to systematically keep reducing risk during equity drawdowns. That way you have a gentle financial and emotional touchdown.”
  • “In order of importance to me are: 1) the long term trend, 2) the current chart pattern, and 3) picking a good spot to buy or sell.”
  • “Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
  • “Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them “funny-mentals”. However, if you catch on early, before others believe, you might have valuable “surprise-a-mentals”.”
  • “If you can’t measure it, you probably can’t manage it… Things you measure tend to improve.”
  • “The key to long-term survival and prosperity has a lot to do with the money management techniques incorporated into the technical system.”
  • “If you want to know everything about the market, go to the beach. Push and pull your hands with the waves. Some are bigger waves, some are smaller. But if you try to push the wave out when it’s coming in, it’ll never happen. The market is always right”
  • “To avoid whipsaw losses, stop trading”
  • “Pyramiding instructions appear on dollar bills. Add smaller and smaller amounts on the way up. Keep your eye open at the top.”
  • “Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the math. There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty.”
  • “Our work is not so much to treat or to cure feelings, as to accept and celebrate them. This is a critical difference.”
  • “Before I enter a trade, I set stops at a point at which the chart sours.”
  • “Trading requires skill at reading the markets and at managing your own anxieties.”
  • “The positive intention of fear is risk control.”
  • “Speculate with less than 10% of your liquid net worth. Risk less than 1% of your speculative account on a trade. This tends to keep the fluctuations in the trading account small, relative to net worth. This is essential as large fluctuations can engage {emotions} and lead to feeling-justifying drama.”

Ed on my podcast too.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Don’t Fear Failure: Comfort Zone Living Is Death

Feedback in:

Dear Mr. Covel,

Let me please take a bit of your time and let me share my thoughts about one of your latest podcasts.

Episode 378.

That monologue blew me away. I had to pause so often as I had to inhale fresh air to think about my own life. The topic of failure and success! Education is not a huge topic people in Germany like to talk about. Often you hear the voices of your parents, friends, teachers, “You can not do this and that. No, you are to small for it. Learn first something properly before you are shifting your focus to another topic. No, please finish first your university so if you have that job you have something for a crisis as you can always go back even if you decide to start with something new.“

I am so angry with all this BS that I heard my entire life and thanks to your work I have started with trading for my own around 8 years ago. I have lost a lot of money, but since about a year ago I am successful. I quit my boring job where I had my comfort zone living from paycheck to paycheck. I got married with my wonderful wife from Brazil and swing trade currencies and commodities with the bias of the long term trend.

I would love to hear more of failure and mindset on your podcast. You should really try to get Michael Jordan or J.K. Rowling on your podcast. I am a dreamer and I believe in myself. Thanks for giving your voice and message into this world. By the way I will go to China end of October and thanks for your Episode 358. My wife and I are visiting Guangzhou for the Canton Trade Fair, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing. It would be a pleasure for me to meet you if you have time by any chance.

All the best,
[Name]

You are welcome. Let’s see if we can meet!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Feedback

Feedback in:

Dear Michael,

First off, I would like to thank you on the excellent work you have done. You should be very proud of your efforts. The courage you have shown at times is highly impressive.

I am not a particularly good writer, but I will try to keep this concise and accurate. I have been working in the finance area for roughly ten years, but until recently I didn’t know of you. In fact, I only discovered Richard Dennis and the turtle story a few years ago. I read up on them for a bit, then as daily work took over and whatever else, I never went back to them. I then lost my job, became pretty sick, moved country…well, a lot happened. I have always been surrounded by fundamental type fund managers and analysts, who never really wanted or asked my opinion, I was just their operations or trader guy. I never had the confidence to voice my opinion. Listening to conversations with lines like ‘China mobile is cheap at twelve times earnings’ or ‘I should really tweak my estimates slightly on mediatek’. The usual blah blah, by guys who only cared about beating their peers, despite meaning that could mean their clients losing money. While I never believed it, I never really took the time to seek an alternative way. I was generally more interested in sport. Also, I never had any kind of mentor. I know these sound like lame excuses, maybe they are.

To use your words Michael, I am ‘making a commitment to change’. My motivation is one for change in my life. I have consumed a lot of your work in recent months, mostly the books and podcasts (an outstanding service). I am very interested in purchasing your training program. I am more than humble to admit, I can’t turn things around without help and sound advice. I am not seeking a Holy Grail as mentioned on your site. I want to give myself minimum one year full effort and commitment, part of a plan to turn things around. Of course, it will hopefully be one year or many more.

About the program, I am concerned that I may wander off course, so to speak. There is a lot of reading material. Can I read that over time? Can I educate myself with the systems at the same time? I worry that without checkpoints along the way, the books will gather dust. I guess that is up to me. My capital for investments at the moment is relatively modest. I also worry that I should have more questions to ask, but don’t.

Thank you for your time. I am happy to call you if you have a spare five mins, I understand you are a busy guy. Email is more than fine.

Regards,
[Name]

Sure, we can talk. I look forward to the chat.

In advance of that call listen.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Worried About the Stock Market?

Feedback in:

After listening to your podcast for years – I can just hear you reacting to this:

Read.

Best,
[Name]

Everyone has a choice to make!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Timeless Wisdom Lost on the Obtuse

Feedback on my free DVD:

I have watched the DVD, and was extremely disappointed to see that the interview was with someone who started in the share market about 25 years ago.

Thanks for the feedback. You missed the point.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Are You Profiting From the Market Panic?

Feedback in:

Michael,

I received a call from my dad asking if I was OK with the market panic selloff. Even though I had explained how I trade he and many others still think a drop in markets is bad for everyone. Naturally the panic selling was not the start of the down trend so I was nicely short the Dow prior to sell off.

I still can’t believe how robust this system is. Conceptually, I felt I understood it in the past but you just don’t get it until you trade it. And I am still amazed that the general market still thinks that you can only profit from stocks and commodities going up. At the same time I am profiting from that ignorance, so I am inclined to enjoy it.

Regards,
[Name]

Thanks.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.