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We are still in the game, with some losses and some gains; currently at break-even after a drawdown period. All is well.
Yesterday, the price took me out of a trade that already had a stop-loss set at break-even. Without delving into details, a gap at market open brought the price below my break-even level, leading me to sell immediately.
The frustrating thing about this is that apparently the worst-case scenario would have been to exit with no profit or loss. However, the unexpected happened, resulting in a 2% loss. Despite being the same story, this time I felt more demotivated, as if I were stuck in the mud. Nevertheless, I continued with the process, as there was nothing else to do.
This morning, after setting the stop-losses for my current positions, I went for a run, I usually alternate between weights and running as exercise. But today, I needed something more intense; I wanted to feel alive and purposeful. I started running while listening to your latest podcast, the monologue, and boy did I get it, crystal clear.
It helped me refocus on what truly matters: the process;
Process vs outcome:– Bad process + good results = dumb luck
– Bad process + bad results = deserve failure <- here I was with my bad process a year ago.
– Good process + good results = Success
– Good process + bad results = bad break <- here I am currently.I don’t expect a response to this email; I just wanted to share these thoughts with someone I know understands.
Having some kind of record helps keep me going.There’s still a lot I don’t understand, but I am working on it.
Thank you for your constant participation.
Fernando S.
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Michael,
Biggest challenges I have faced in trading are trust and skepticism! Seems like whenever I come upon a new investment “system” I’m the last one to the party before the lights go out. I figure if trend following trading advice is making it to a cubicle jockey at my level, then it must be too late.
And no disrespect intended: If trend following is so successful why do you sell products about how to do it? Why not just keep it in house and bank all the money you want instead of dealing with little fish like me?
I’m still interested as there is nothing new under the sun and human psychology doesn’t really change. So maybe there is something to this.
Take care,
Matt V.
I didn’t always know trend following. The famed Nobel winner Richard Feynman says it best: “If you want to master something, teach it. The more you teach, the better you learn. Teaching is a powerful tool to learning.” You can take advantage of your good fortune or not.
On skeptics: read.
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.
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Hi Michael,
Just came across this article in the June 2024 issue of Stocks and Commodities magazine:
Identifying Entry And Exit Levels
Developing A Trend-Following Strategy For Futures, Based On Price Channels
by [name}Which futures markets work well with using price channels to identify entries and exits?
Here’s a test to find out using an example trend following strategy.Ben L.
A one answer piecemeal from me is not how I roll. Start here!
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.
Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes
My guest today is Ilya Strebulaev, a Russian-American financial economist, researcher, author, and speaker with expertise in venture capital, startups, and corporate innovation. He has been a professor at the Stanford Graduate School of Business since 2004. From 2018 to 2022 he was on the board of directors of Yandex, the Russian equivalent of Google. Ilya co-developed a framework that asses the value of private venture capital (VC) backed companies. His research also includes studies on the decision-making of startup investors, the organization and design of VC and corporate VC units, and the importance of venture capital in innovation and the economy.
The topic is his co-authored book The Venture Mindset: How to Make Smarter Bets and Achieve Extraordinary Growth.
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Please enjoy my monologue Don’t F Around with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.
Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.
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Price without a reference to volume or momentum or any other factor that would constitute other than price alone?
3 widgets, with prices of 10, 20 and 30. I cannot know the 10 is a good buy w/o reference to the 20 and 30. There are ways to know of the 10 being a great price. For example, I read the news today, about a widget that made the grade and widgets were advertised at 20 and 30, so 10 is a good price. If we buy it at 10 it is sure to go p to 20 or 30, i.e., the price will get momentum and more buyers (volume).
Sorry Michael, but I will read further about price alone. Didn’t Brian Shannon operate on price alone, in multiple time frames, but now uses VWAP and volume at price?
You don’t describe classic trend following. More.
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
Also jump in:
• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us
Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.