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My guest today is Philip Tetloc, a Canadian American political science writer currently at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is right at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior. Phil is also a co-principle investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a study on the art and science of prediction and forecasting.
The topic is his book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
- What are superforecasters?
- Probabilistic thinking
- Looking at data
“It is interesting that their seems to be more software engineers that are superforecasters than political scientists.” – Phil Tetlock
Mentions & Resources:
- Philip Tetlock
- “Superforecasing: The Art and Science of Prediction”
- The Good Judgment Project
- Nassim Taleb
- Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder
- superforecasting.com
- @PTetlock
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