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“Main problem is how to define trend. What is a trend and what is not…”

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Hi,

Recently bought your book as a holiday treat to myself.

I already own all books by Van Tharp and I’m motivated to find “my trend following system.”

Still 1 year in progress, it’s a hard, mental, and intelligent challenge.

I keep questioning myself if it is even possible to beat the market. YTD (2024) I’m only up 12.5% while S&P500 is approx. 19% (12/07). My partner’s account, which I only suggest her which ETF to buy once a month, is at 19.5% YTD!

So basically with all the time spent I don’t get anywhere (against my 2 benchmarks; the index and a buy and hold ETF philosophy).

Main problem is how to define trend. What is a trend and what is not? I want to make myself richer not my brokerage firm which for now I think I’m doing. I’ve got a big loss in Nike from which I could not part until it was finally down 35% (Auch).

Backtesting my system I’m about 40% – 60% (so not even 50%) with wins averaging 1.8 times averaging losses.

I’ve got a university degree so I’m not dumb (or perhaps I am).

I found out about your website so now I need time to explore that even more.

Always reading and testing but it is getting frustrating.

Any help/insights would be great.

Kind regards,
Steve V.

Your exact system and time frame now? How have you selected a portfolio? I don’t understand the trend focus. Entries. Exits. That’s the issue. Not trying to measure a trend before it happens.


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