Michael, I have spent some time thinking about the underlying forces of the markets and I believe I have the answer. The market moves in three basic ways. Trend, cycles and breakouts. The mind of man/woman drives the market but which mind. Science says we have three brains. One in our head, one in our heart and one in our gut. So what does what! The head nuts things out and wants to find trends. The heart wants cycles and looks for seasonal patterns. The gut is ready and always looking for breakouts and disaster and and fat tails, the fight or flight response. This is why the market is so hard to understand, there are three brains at work all the time. Only occasionally do they all agree.
Trend followers don’t try to understand markets. Why not just make money instead?