Episode: The Wishing/Doing Gap

Synopsis: Michael Covel sometimes feels like he’s floating above and looking down like the protagonist in David Bowie’s “Space Oddity“. In today’s episode Covel closes this alienating gap with his explanation of the “lottery society“: The idea that you don’t have to work–you simply make a small bet of your time and money and your your entire world can change through one single action (even though the odds say there is no chance). We’ve pushed aside the notion of purposeful, driven, consistent effort and work. You can see the concept of a “lottery society” beyond the notion of buying a scratch-off: the idea that the Presidential election will change your life, reality shows and American Idol’s instant fame fantasy and drugs and alcohol as the quick fix. It all sounds well and good, but the lottery mentality doesn’t work. It sucks the life out of you. How did we even get to the point where being “picked” has replaced the notion of good, consistent hard work and creating something from scratch? It’s the gap between wishing and doing. We’re in a fantastic world of distraction and the lottery mentality is a perfect example of that distraction. Covel goes on to explain the parallels between fundamental analysis and the lottery mindset; perspectives on the lottery mindset from writer Seth Godin; the perils of watering down a clear trend following trading strategy with short term trading strategies, fundamental analysis, and media input; and the illusion that tools such as the iPhone make us more productive. Next, Covel notes how many want a hero these days (instead of viewing themselves as heroes). Currently, the “hero de jour” is Ben Bernanke, chairman of The Federal Reserve–except most don’t have a grasp why his current rate policy is so problematic. When you have rates artificially reduced to zero it forces people to invest in the stock market. Covel offers commentary regarding current Fed policy by giving context via an exploration of recent tech and real estate bubble histories. As Charles Hugh Smith (www.oftwominds.com) has noted, “If you prop up an artificial economy long enough, does it become real?”. Covel gives his personal view of the current situation: You know it’s bad, you know it’s eventually going to pop, but what do you do? That’s the hard question. So how can you profit in the face of such uncertainty? Trend following is the profit answer when the black swan swims in. Special offer: Receive a free DVD here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/free.html.

One thought on “Episode: The Wishing/Doing Gap

  1. Wow this is to the point. You stunned my brain, where do I begin? Lottery society comes from the state. Guess who actually controls them,hint it is not Santa. Imagine getting the public to voluntarily GIVE their money to you so that you can spend it. Sure beats raising taxes. Fear I believe is the biggest problem to achieving anything in life. So why not give five bucks for ticket to paradise? The old saying still works; If you tell a big enough lie often enough it becomes the truth. I also believe that the consumer society is part of the problem. Just go to your local bank, and presto NEW CAR. Can’t afford it? No problem, we will let you lease it! Why put effort into anything when you can have it all RIGHT NOW! Of course you may have to work for 50 years to pay for it, but hey I got it. Personal responsibility? Why bother, I followed the advice from Cramer (or who ever you want to name) and my investment didn’t work out, not my fault. Is it easier to believe all the BS then to actually do all the work? Don’t know. I am not a shrink, but everybody seems to want everything, and that may be part of the problem too. Wanting but never actually doing. Does that make sense? Strange, just before writing this I was at the local food store and they have a lottery counter, there is a waste basket right at the counter for all the losing tickets. A quick glance in I notice it is half full, (or perhaps half empty?) i realize that has to be around $3,500-5,000 worth of tickets! Imagine tapping into that and who would need trend following?! Then there is the financial adviser at the bank who thinks trend following is all BS because if it worked everybody would be doing it, and then tells you that your mutual funds gained 8% this year and that you did good. Never mentions the 50% you lost in 08.
    Which if I have got this right means lotteries work because everybody is buying lottery tickets. Sound economics if you ask me.

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