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Category: Black Swan Thinking

Ep. 341: Michael Dever Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Michael Dever
Michael Dever

My guest today is Michael Dever, an American businessman, futures trader, entrepreneur, and author. Dever is the founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management, Inc., an investment management firm founded in 1982.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Multiple fundamentally based strategies in a systematic diversified portfolio that trades across more than one hundred global markets; strategy diversification
  • The word “predictable” from Dever’s perspective; lack of correlation to other strategies
  • What Dever means by a “not purely quantitative” strategy
  • How and why this particular suite of strategies came to exist
  • The five strategy types
  • Crisis events and black swans
  • The weakness in the multiple strategy return driver set
  • The importance of speculators
  • The fixation on low volatility strategies
  • True portfolio diversification.

Listen to this episode:

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The Amazing Normal Distribution Function

Posted on by Michael Covel

Watch.

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• Performance
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Systematic trend following exploits market moves without the noise of expectations and conventional wisdom.

Posted on by Michael Covel

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

James Simons: Mathematics, Common Sense and Good Luck

Posted on by Michael Covel

I start this at a point where he talks about his entry into trading.

Jim Simons
Jim Simons

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Computer-Driven, Automatic Trading Strategies Score Big

Posted on by Michael Covel

From WSJ:

Despite the popular conception of hedge funds as masters of global economic trends, these managers [read: TREND FOLLOWING] typically don’t have a strong view of where individual markets are headed. Instead, they frequently use significant leverage, or borrowed money, to invest based on momentum, using computer models to forecast which prices will continue rising or falling. That can pay off in a big way even when they don’t precisely predict the headlines. For instance, Cantab Capital, the roughly $5 billion U.K. firm founded by former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner Ewan Kirk, scored a 13% gain in January, according to investor documents and a person familiar with the firm.

Nice!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 315: Michael Mauboussin Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Michael Mauboussin
Michael Mauboussin

My guest today is Michael Mauboussin, an investment strategist in the financial services industry, professor at the Columbia Graduate School of Business, and serves on the board of trustees at the Sante Fe Institute (an independent, nonprofit theoretical research institute). He is managing director and head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, where he advises clients on valuation and portfolio positioning, capital markets theory, competitive strategy analysis, and decision making.

The topics are his books More Than You Know and Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Multi-disciplinary thinking and its influence on Covel
  • Looking at larger reference classes
  • The Swiss Franc
  • Mauboussin’s personal take on the recent oil move
  • Fundamentals and expectation
  • Luck or skill when it comes to trading profits
  • The paradox of skill, absolute, and relative skill
  • Whether scientific principles of luck exist
  • Defining luck
  • Outcome bias
  • The general public perception of behavioral economics

Listen to this episode:

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Can’t Argue the Facts

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hey Mike!

Just a quick one to say thanks for your podcast and your work. Just finished your book and have been listening to your podcast for about 6 months now. I’ve been studying in a share trading diploma here in Australia to get me started but as I’ve progressed I’ve noticed so many holes in the theories surrounding market timing in particular. I haven’t been content to just assume these methods work.

I’m a huge Oakland A’s fan and I’m a big sabermetrics guy. Trend Following looked like the most logical method of trading to me, but once you compared it to baseball it concreted it in my mind. It’s logical! You can’t argue a point (very well) with qualitative data. In my mind that applies to everything in life…. so why not trading?

Appreciate your insights.

[Name]

Thanks.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.