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If You Want to Connect with Anyone … You Already Know How

Posted on by Michael Covel

A reader writes:

Are any of the big guys in trend following: Marcus, Ed, Kovner etc., open to an email or call? We are starting to market the new fund and getting very good reception. Goldman is our prime broker and they are introducing us … I just want bend someone’s ear who is a senior guy, show/send him the presentation etc. Any thoughts?

My general answer: If you want to talk to someone you will. If you don’t you won’t. Very Seykota-esque response. And my answer is exactly how my career has run. I don’t have another answer that would fit with generally accepted methods, etc.

***

The White Rabbit put on his spectacles. “Where shall I begin, please your Majesty?” he asked. “Begin at the beginning,” the King said gravely, “and go on till you come to the end: then stop.”

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Michael Mauboussin Will Make You Think

Posted on by Michael Covel

Michael Mauboussin appeared in my film Broke a few years back and I have always enjoyed his efforts. While not a trend follower much of his work dovetails nicely with the heart and soul of trend following success: human behavior and inefficient markets. Two recent Mauboussin works worth reading (PDF):

The Importance of Expectations. The Question that Bears Repeating: What’s Priced in?
Shaking the Foundation: Revisiting Basic Assumptions about Risk, Reward, and Optimal Portfolios

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 73: Peter Brandt Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Peter Brandt
Peter Brandt

My guest today is Peter Brandt, a trader who has been in the commodity trading space since 1976. He’s traded his own proprietary account from the late 1970s until today and is currently entering the hedge fund world by running a multi-CTA fund-of-funds. Brandt got his start in Chicago trading commodities and working at the Chicago Board of Trade for Continental Grain Company.

The topic is his book Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader: Lessons from 21 Weeks of Real Trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How the accident influenced his trading and how great lessons can be learned through adversity
  • The idea of trading a five-minute chart pattern vs. a weekly chart pattern
  • The biggest mistakes you can make as a novice trader
  • Averaging a loser
  • Risk management and the right amount to risk on any trade
  • Upside volatility and the fantasy of a straight line up of profit growth
  • The importance of reducing the incessant head chatter and living in the moment now

Listen to this episode:

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QOTD: What Do You Call a Stock Down 90%?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Saw Barry Ritholtz pass along a great quote from David Einhorn:

“What do you call a stock that’s down 90%? A stock that was down 80% and then got cut in half.”

“Cheap” now doesn’t mean it is a buy. Losers average losers!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 68: Mark Shore Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Mark Shore
Mark Shore

My guest today is Mark Shore, a trader and educator whose main area of expertise is managed futures. Shore has an MBA from the University of Chicago, was the former head of risk at Octane Research (over a billion AUM), was the former COO of VK Capital (a subsidiary of Morgan Stanley), and now is an adjunct professor at DePaul University teaching the only accredited course on managed futures in the country.

The topic is his paper Decoding The Myths of Managed Futures.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Shore’s experience in getting the “a-ha” moments out of his students when teaching managed futures, and how he brings his students into the world of managed futures
  • How and why those working in the CTA/managed futures/trend following space have a firm grasp on risk management that exceeds the understanding of competitors (i.e. mutual funds)
  • How the term “managed futures” (which refers to the instrument and not the strategy) might be problematic
  • Skewness
  • Drawdowns
  • Why managed futures performance is famous for doing extremely well when chaos unfurls
  • Why the majority of the mutual fund industry hasn’t adopted CTA strategies
  • The issue of survivorship bias
  • Why certain people can’t wrap their arms around strategies not based on fundamental analysis
  • The emotional elements of trading
  • Other experiences while working at VK Capital

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 67: Rich and Poor Thoughts with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Rich and Poor Thoughts with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Rich and Poor Thoughts with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue Rich Thoughts & Poor Thoughts with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

The Psychology of Market Expression

Posted on by Michael Covel

A friend sent along these pictures (PDF) of market faces.

Isn’t it interesting how that is the image of moneymaking success turned to failure? The implication being that those people in the supposed right looking outfits with the right looking access–were surprised that it all fell apart.

I don’t know winners who look like that.

Winners understand that surprise happens and is to be embraced.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.