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Markets: They Trend, They Flow, They Surprise

Chapter taken from “Trend Commandments”:

Markets go up, down, and sideways. They trend. They flow. They surprise. Have markets changed? Not only have markets changed, they will continue to change. Check your history books. If you have a valid market philosophy, learning to accept that change and flow with it is your greatest asset. No matter how ridiculous market moves appear at the beginning, and no matter how extended or irrational they seem at the end, following trends is the rational choice in a chaotic, changing world.

That thinking leaves trend followers as generalists when it comes to their trading strategy and that’s not easy to accept for many. The dominant trend within universities is ever-narrower specialization. A higher premium is placed on deep knowledge within a single field (read: fundamental expertise in one market), versus broad wisdom across multiple fronts.

For example, one trend following practitioner started trading trends in 1974—making hundreds of millions in profits and perhaps billions for clients. The major strategic elements of his trend following trading systems have never changed. He was blunt: “The markets are just the markets. I know that is unusual sounding.”

Occasionally, someone trying to promote something or start a debate will argue that trend following has to change due to changing market conditions. Specious. The root of trend following is based on responding to change. It is designed to be adaptable.

Does that mean every systematic trend trader will take the risk of shooting only for huge returns? No. Does that mean every trend trader will capture a trend in the exact same way? No. The trend following way has many practitioners and many recipes. However, just as there are thousands of car models, they are still cars.

Think about my words.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trading Rules: Strategies for Success

A great excerpt from “Trading Rules: Strategies for Success” by William Eng. It’s a great reminder that market prediction is a fool’s errand:

When you buy something, you want it to go up. When you sell something, you want it to go down. The chance of entering the trade correctly is small, but the chance of exiting the trade correctly is smaller. The chance of being right on both entering and exiting is the smallest. With such diminishing odds of coming through with a completely correct and, therefore, profitable trading campaign, the fewer decisions you make in the markets, the more profitable your trading should be. How many people actually get to sell at the top or buy at the bottom? At most, a handful in each reversal area. First, you must be a market follower, once the market has told you want it wants to do. If the market is a raging bull, you have no alternative but to buy. If it is bearish, you have no alternative but to sell every time you get the opportunity. Let the market tell you what to do. To do otherwise is to try to control the markets-something that is only reserved for God and natural disasters. Secondly, selling at the top and buying at the bottom does not guarantee profits. How many times have you heard of traders who managed to sell near the highs or buy near the bottoms, only to miss the ensuing move completely.

Read that back in the day. I need to see if William might appear on my podcast.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ride the Bucking Bronco: The Nature of the Trend Following Profit Beast

Some trading 101 from Trend Commandments:

One of the most useful criticisms that you can use to further your understanding centers on prediction. Trend followers… do not predict a market’s timing or distinction. Trend followers react to market movements. It is a critical distinction best seen in the words of trend follower Bill Dunn, “We don’t make market predictions. We just ride the bucking bronco.”

For more information on books and other resources to further your trend following education go here.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Where Should Beginning Trend Followers Start?

Feedback in:

Hello, I am currently a college student, and am very interested in learning about stock trading. I just listened to your interview on the Tropical MBA podcast, and it was great! As someone who is new to stock trading, with little experience, where should I start? Any advice from you would be greatly appreciated!

Thank you,
Adam D.

Three places:

1. Resources here: trendfollowing.com/resources
2. Training here: trendfollowing.com/products
3. Podcast here: trendfollowing.com/podcasts

That should get you started. Plus, books.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Look Before You Leap Is Mission Critical

An excerpt from my first book, “Trend Following”:

Trend following, like any entrepreneurial endeavor, demands you to be responsible for yourself. Charles Faulkner emphasized the point: “Trend trading and even trading in general isn’t for everyone. As too few people check out what the day-to-day life of a trader is like, and trend trading specifically, I strongly recommend they find out before making a life changing commitment.”

What does “life changing commitment” involve? You commit to not wanting to be right all of the time. Most people, let’s face it, must be right. They live to have other people know they’re right. They don’t even want the success. They don’t want to win. They don’t want money. They just want to be right. The winners, on the other hand, just want to win.

If you don’t want to win–on something in life–go jump now.

Note: Charles has been one of my most popular podcast guests. He will be on soon again.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Aim for the Highest & Watch the Dark Horse

Andrew Carnegie:

There is one sure mark of the coming partner, the future millionaire; his revenues always exceed his expenditures. He begins to save early, almost as soon as he begins to earn. No matter how little it may be possible to save, save that little. Invest it securely, not necessarily in bonds, but in anything which you have good reason to believe will be profitable, but no gambling with it, remember. A rare chance will soon present itself for investment. The little you have saved will prove the basis for an amount of credit utterly surprising to you. Capitalists trust the saving young man. For every hundred dollars you can produce as the result of hard-won savings, Midas, in search of a partner, will lend or credit a thousand; for every thousand, fifty thousand. It is not capital that your seniors require, it is the man who has proved that he has the business habits which create capital, and to create it in the best of all possible ways, as far as self-discipline is concerned, is, by adjusting his habits to his means. Gentlemen, it is the first hundred dollars saved which tells. Begin at once to lay up something. The bee predominates in the future millionaire…To summarize what I have said: Aim for the highest; never enter a bar-room; do not touch liquor, or if at all only at meals; never speculate; never indorse beyond your surplus cash fund; make the firm’s interest yours; break orders always to save owners; concentrate; put all your eggs in one basket, and watch that basket; expenditure always within revenue; lastly, be not impatient, for, as Emerson says, “no one can cheat you out of ultimate success but yourselves.” I congratulate poor young men upon being born to that ancient and honorable degree which renders it necessary that they should devote themselves to hard work. A basketful of bonds is the heaviest basket a young man ever had to carry. He generally gets to staggering under it. We have in this city creditable instances of such young men, who have pressed to the front rank of our best and most useful citizens. These deserve great credit. But the vast majority of the sons of rich men are unable to resist the temptations to which wealth subjects them, and sink to unworthy lives. I would almost as soon leave a young man a curse, as burden him with the almighty dollar. It is not from this class you have rivalry to fear. The partner’s sons will not trouble you much, but look out that some boys poorer, much poorer than yourselves, whose parents cannot afford to give them the advantages of a course in this institute, advantages which should give you a decided lead in the race–look out that such boys do not challenge you at the post and pass you at the grand stand. Look out for the boy who has to plunge into work direct from the common school and who begins by sweeping out the office. He is the probable dark horse that you had better watch.

Nice. From late 1800s. Timeless. Shout to TropicalMBA.com for the find.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Rational Logic Means Nothing in the Markets

Greenspan speaks to how irrational markets can be:

Michael, Thanks for making all of your podcasts available to the public. Please keep up the good work. I thought you might find the quote below from Alan Greenspan of interest. It’s from a 10/26/13 interview with the FT entitled “Crash Course”:

“…He [Greenspan] admits that he first saw how irrational finance could become as long ago as the 1950s and 1960s when he briefly tried, as a young New York economist, to trade commodity markets. Back then he thought he could predict cotton values ‘from the outside, looking at supply-demand forces’. But when he actually ‘bought a seat in the market and did a lot of trading’, he discovered that rational logic did not always rule. ‘There were a couple of guys in the exchange who couldn’t tell a hide from copper sheeting but they made a lot of money. Why? They weren’t trading a commodity but human nature…and there is something about human nature which is not rational‘…”

Best,
L.W.

Trend following foundational point #1,232,980.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.