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Ep. 288: Frank Curzio & Robin Griffiths Interviews with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Frank Curzio & Robin Griffiths
Frank Curzio & Robin Griffiths

My guests today are Frank Curzio of Stansberry & Associates and Robin Griffiths, the Chief Technical Strategist at ECU and formerly at HSBC.

The topic is markets.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Covel and Curzio discuss how the fundamental guys justify all time highs in the equity market; the Shiller PE ratio; the importance of analyzing interest rates; Warren Buffett recent investments; what the Fed would do if we went down 30% today; why having a low interest rate environment creates a good situation for stocks; being prepared from a risk management perspective; Zero Interest Rate Policy, its effect on equities and bonds, and tail risk; comparing the environment today to the 1987 crash; hypothetical situations surrounding the S&P 500; exit strategies; and the 24-hour news cycle.
  • Covel and Griffiths discuss how to use fundamentals in an age when interest rates are artificially controlled; Griffiths’ history as a mechanical engineer and how he found his way into trading and technical analysis; regression analysis; Elliott Wave and cycles; the idea of whipsaws; geopolitical risks; China, India, and the rise of Asia; not trading off of geopolitical fundamental information; how Griffiths came to the conclusion that the efficient market hypothesis and much of what the mutual fund industry depends on doesn’t hold water; spikes and why people in 2014 think that all spikes are gone; Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay and the cyclical nature of booms and busts; and virtual currencies.

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Don’t Miss Out: Listen to Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel

A short but sweet email came across my desk from a great investor (that has appeared on my podcast) about a meeting he had with another great guest that has appeared on my podcast:

Had a catch up with Charles Faulkner today who agreed that you are an amazing interviewer.

My reply: I have great guests. Makes it easy!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

You Are Right… The World Could End

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

I am looking forward to a future show with more details from Dunn Capital. If I’m not mistaken, they would have a practical opinion on the usefulness of both Bayesian Inference and Efron’s bootstrap method. Efron, of course, is the author of the Bayes critique cited above.

Per the Kaminski piece, there is no guarantee that 800 years of evidence won’t be undone by a perpetual and implacable tyranny of central bank price discovery suppression. This research looks suspiciously like new marketing materials from Greyserman/Hite etal. In today’s world It is absolutely invalid to say that stop orders which lost money on concentrated bets in the US stock index will be a justifiable risk control cost when the market gaps down 50% over a weekend because the Fed finally sh*ts the bed. How can any credible trend follower say they don’t care to know anything about unprecedented and precarious risks to the monetary system in their analysis?

Dunn seems to have taken more into account than ISAM. An educated guess about Dunn’s risk throttle is that one of the inputs is proportional to the difference between the overnight rate and the CPI.

Further to reducing risk in a low payoff environment (throttling), one of your other guests, Peter Schiff, (who you must interview again) has a decent theory that CPI and the overnight rate will never again cross paths or at least not until Keynesian central banking is dead and buried.

BTW, if something goes wrong with the monetary system, have you considered the possibility that agricultural markets and other markets with lock limits could suddenly and simultaneously be both lock limit up and lock limit down?

I’m guessing, in your mind, you have this idea that it is impossible for all positions to simultaneously lose because there is both a long and short side. One side has to win by definition, right? Well, maybe not…

Think about the situation where the monetary system is pushed to the breaking point. Where in the CME rule book does it say a market can’t be locked both up and down? Trend following strongly depends on the assumption of knowing prices or at least a sensible price ranges. What happens when this is suddenly a bad assumption?

DUNN CEO already appeared on my podcast. TFs don’t use Fed analysis in their trading. Of course, as you note, the world could end. In that case far more issues than trading will be relevant.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
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• Trading Technology
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Vineer Bhansali Trend Following White Paper

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Mike, Can you send me the white paper that was referenced in the Vineer Bhansali podcast? I apologize if this is posted somewhere obvious and I missed it. Normally I’d probably have found it on my own, but having a 3 week old newborn is temporarily draining my productivity! It’d be much appreciated if you could point me in the direction of the research that was discussed. What a refreshing podcast to hear a more mainstream financial institution embrace real trend following.

Thanks,
[Name]

Thanks. Go here for his white paper. And good luck with your new little one!

Also in:

Michael, great show. Do you have additional information about the research/historical performance work done by Vineer Bhansali or is it just the information from the PIMCO pages?

Do you know if this fund actually follows the 100% systematic “simple” trend-follower approach back tested in the article or is this just a bait and switch for a discretionary fund? Do you know the actual rules for the “simple” trend-follower approach back-tested in this paper?

Many Thanks,
[Name]

Best bet is to reach out to them for all questions about their papers.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 287: Toby Crabel Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Toby Crabel
Toby Crabel

My guest today is Toby Crabel, a tennis player who is now a commodities trader. In 2005, the Financial Times called Crabel “the most well-known trader on the counter-trend side”.

The topic is commodity trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Crabel’s history as a pro tennis player
  • Longevity and consistency in tennis and trading
  • Where Crabel stands with the total number of systems he employs
  • The source of Crabel’s profits and the philosophy behind it
  • Price action
  • Winning and losing volatility
  • Why Crabel needs price movement and volume
  • The idea of price shocks and the importance of being aware of them
  • The process of moving from high drawdowns to a much lower drawdown
  • The importance of diversity
  • Early lightbulb moments that informed Crabel’s trading style
  • Crabel’s experience with Victor Niederhoffer
  • How the philosophy of Objectivism has informed Crabel’s life
  • The liquidity of futures markets
  • The importance of persistence

Go listen. You may also enjoy this post on Toby Crabel.

Buy & Sell

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Trend Following: Pura Vida!

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael, I´m a Tim Sykes Challenge student [and] I saw you in one of his DVDs. Since then I have followed your podcast (and great interviews by the way). I’m [an] audio guy [and] I only found your audio book [for] “The Little Book of in Trading”. [W]hen [will] the others books…be available in audio?

I´ve been a broker for 17 years in Costa Rica in [Name] (biggest Insurance company in Central America) and my clients currently are pension funds: private and public. The markets in this country are changing. Our pension funds administrate 15B in local currency and they are doing baby steps to invest in the US markets. Could you recommend me the top funds that do Trend Following that specialize in pension funds or insurance companies?

Greetings from Costa Rica, or how we say, “PURA VIDA”.

Review my podcast. Many names. All of my books? More names. No secrets!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Anthony Todd: “Great Podcast!”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael, Great podcast with Anthony Todd. Just a comment: Please tell him I’m insane and I’ll try to succeed without 500,000,000 bucks capital!

Ciao,
[Name]

Thanks for the feedback. He was indeed a great guest.

Find out more about what does a commodity trader do?

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.