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Trend Following Black Box Descriptions Never End

Posted on by Michael Covel

Josh Charlson, director of alternative-strategies research at Morningstar:

“It’s [Trend Following] a little bit of a black-box approach: We can understand the contours of it, but it’s not easy to see all the inside mechanisms.”

In 2016 those referring to trend following as black-box should be [blank].

Blackbox Mindlessness
Black-box Mindlessness

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 431: Bill Bonner Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Bill Bonner
Bill Bonner

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My guest today is Bill Bonner, an American author of books and articles on economic and financial subjects. He is the founder of Agora Financial, as well as a co-founder of Bonner & Partners publishing. Bonner has written articles for the news and opinion blog LewRockwell.com, MoneyWeek magazine, and his daily financial column Bill Bonner’s Diary.

The topic is his book Hormegeddon: How Too Much Of A Good Thing Leads To Disaster.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Declining marginal utility
  • Unemployment
  • Negative interest rates
  • Myth vs. Reality
  • Government polling

“The fed’s try and stretch the addiction out as long as possible. Why? Because running a rehab clinic can be a good business, especially if the patients never recover. Patients are never allowed to hit bottom. They never get better, and the quacks bring more and more wealth and power to themselves and their friends.” – Bill Bonner

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A Fake Price Is Still A Price

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in from my assistant Michelle:

I was watching survivor last night with my mom and my mind was blown when the person who got kicked out said this:

I was very confident that whether we won or lost [the challenge] things would work out for me. I really don’t know what happened that made my tribe want to vote me out tonight. I don’t think the numbers lied to me, it’s the people that lied to me and when you count fictitious promises you get a fictitious total.

She was saying that she got kicked out because of the people, not the “numbers”, but the people are the numbers. They are who vote. Just like saying you don’t lose money because of what the market does, you lose money because of what other people do to make the market go up and down. Just trying to blame your loses on the “people” rather than “the numbers.” It’s all the same thing. The game is made up of people who make up the numbers.

Touché!

Survivor
Survivor

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Hillary Clinton’s Selective Dot Com Bubble Memory

Posted on by Michael Covel

In a March 2016 debate Hillary Clinton declared:

You know, if we’re going to argue about the 1990’s instead of talking about the future, which I’d much prefer because I think every election is about the future, and you all deserve to know what we will do to help you have a brighter future — but, if we are going to talk about the 1990’s I think it’s only fair to say that at the end of the 1990’s, after two terms of my husband’s presidency, the unemployment rate in Michigan was 4.4 percent.

The 1990s were the biggest stock market bubble in USA history. And now 16 years later, via slight of hand and a fantasy timeline, shes brag about the then great economy that magically only concluded at the tail end of her husband’s Presidency.

Bottom line, politicians are never the path to wealth and their words never tell anywhere close to a full story. Here are the 1990s in Nasdaq chart form:

NASDAQ Bubble Chart
NASDAQ Bubble Chart

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 430: The Mob Rules with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
The Mob Rules with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Mob Rules with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue The Mob Rules with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Bombay cotton market 1865
  • Bubbles and mania
  • Profiting from the speculation
  • Having a plan in place

“All speculative follies go down the same path. The players involved look the same. They act the same. They talk to same. The only thing that is different are the names. It’s always a new technology. It’s always an innovation.” – Michael Covel

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Note: That title made me recall:

For those unwilling to think deeply…

Posted on by Michael Covel

Great lines from Seth Godin:

You might not be willing to devote the time and energy to understand how electricity actually works, or the mechanisms of your democracy, or the insights behind irrational decision making. More likely, you don’t want to expend the emotional labor to push through feeling dumb as you dig deep on your way to getting smart.

That’s always been an option. You can just use the tool without understanding it, copy the leader without realizing where she’s going, follow instructions without questioning them.

You can choose to be a cog in a machine you don’t understand.

If that’s working for you, no need to change it.

It made me ponder: trust the Fed, trust buy and hold, etc. If it’s working for you, no need to change it.

Tails
Tails

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 429: Jim Rogers Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Jim Rogers
Jim Rogers

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My guest today is Jim Rogers, an American investor and financial commentator based in Singapore. Rogers is the chairman of Beeland Interests, Inc. He was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management. He was also the creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI). Rogers does not consider himself a member of any school of economic thought, but has acknowledged that his views best fit the label of the Austrian School of economics.

The topic is central banking system.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Negative interest rates
  • Central banking systems
  • Market crashes
  • The impact of unintended consequences
  • Preparing for the future

“For the last 30 years look at who we have had down there [as the head of the Federal Reserve]. They have all been academic and political hacks.” – Jim Rogers

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