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Herd Behavior: Excerpt from Trend Following, 5th Edition

Posted on by Michael Covel

An excerpt from my most recent edition of Trend Following:

Trend following is as much about observing and understanding human behavior as it is about moving averages, breakouts, and position sizing. Understanding human behavior and how it relates with markets is commonly referred to as behavioral economics or behavioral finance. It evolved from the contradiction between classical economic theory (EMT) and reality. The assumption people act rationally, have identical values and access to information, and use rational decision making is one preposterous assumption.

However, trend following strategies only work if price trends continue. But why should trends continue? If prices initially under-react to either good or bad news, trends tend to continue as prices slowly move to fully reflect changes in fundamental value. These trends have the potential to continue even further as investors herd (or chase trends). Herding can cause prices to overreact and move beyond fundamental value after the initial under-reaction. Naturally, all trends must eventually end, as deviation from fair value cannot continue infinitely. Said another way, people are irrational as hell and seldom make rational decisions even if they think they do. That’s not my one-man opinion either. I have had the good fortune to learn from and interview the top minds in the field of behavioral economics and finance, including Nobel Prize winners Daniel Kahneman and Vernon Smith, Dan Ariely, Colin Camerer, Christopher Chabris, Robert Cialdini, K. Anders Ericsson, Gerd Gigerenzer, Donald MacKenzie, Spyros Makridakis, Terrance Odean, Steven Pinker, Laurie Santos, Hersh Shefrin, Daniel Simons, Paul Slovic, Didier Sornette, Meir Statman, Brett Steenbarger, and Philip Tetlock to name a few of the best minds in the field. (You can find these interviews on my podcast at www.trendfollowing.com/behavior.)

Some want to argue about everything but this. Big mistake.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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• Frequently Asked Questions
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 565: Anthony Tjan Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Anthony Tjan
Anthony Tjan

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My guest today is Anthony Tjan, the author of “Good People: The Only Leadership Decision That Really Matters.” He is CEO and managing partner of Cue Ball and has a successful track record as an entrepreneur, principal investor and strategic advisor. He leads his firms overall direction and is involved in activities across the board with Cue Ball.

The topic is his book Good People: The Only Leadership Decision That Really Matters.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Competency is not enough
  • Winner take all mentality
  • Mentorship
  • Value centric organizations
  • Pessimism vs. optimism

“Choose goodness as a lifelong intention.” – Anthony Tjan

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

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“I can’t explain the experience in words…”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

I already read your book… and I can’t explain the experience in words. Now I’m thinking in terms of go with the flow in each and every aspect of life. Means trend following works in everyday life. I definitely want to meet you once in a lifetime. Thank you Michael.

Thanks, but I am not that special!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep 564: John Force Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
John Force
John Force

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

My guest today is John Force, an American NHRA drag racer. He is a 16 time champion and his team has 18 championships under them. John is one of the most dominant drag racers in the sport with over 144 career victories and he is still pushing limits at 68 years old. John is considered the best. He is a premier example of making it happen with no excuses.

The topic is drag racing.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Funny car racing
  • Persevering through the negative
  • Having goals
  • Entrepreneurship

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 563: Mark Minervini Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Mark Minervini
Mark Minervini

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My guest today is Mark Minervini, the author of “Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve Super Performance in Stocks in Any Market” and now his newest book, “Think and Trade Like a Champion: The Secrets, Rules and Blunt Truths of a Stock Market Wizard.” He was also featured in Jack Schwager’s “Stock Market Wizards.” This is Mark’s second appearance on the show.

The topics are his books Think & Trade Like a Champion: The Secrets, Rules & Blunt Truths of a Stock Market Wizard and Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve Super Performance in Stocks in Any Market.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Process vs. outcome
  • Builder vs. wrecking ball mentality
  • Eliminating excuses
  • Neuro linguistic programing
  • Sacrifice when obtaining a goal
  • Risk of ruin
  • The trading triangle
  • Diversification vs. Di-worsification
  • Sophistication and simplicity

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 562: The Singer Perspective with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
The Singer Perspective with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Singer Perspective with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue The Singer Perspective with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Doom and gloomers
  • Macro economic perspective
  • Trump’s impact on the markets
  • Timing markets
  • The moment of right now

Mentions & Resources:

Paul Singer
Paul Singer

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

“I am writing to you to say, YES! Someone can be taught from zero experience…”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I came across your work around 3-4 months ago, I don’t remember how but I’m glad I did. I’ve gone back and listened to many of your podcasts and in one of them you spoke about the ability or wondered if someone could be taught to become a Trend Follower with no market experience.

I don’t remember it exactly, however I felt it described me perfectly. For the last 2.5 years I have worked in Foreign Exchange as an Account Manager in Australia. A person who already worked their took me under their wing and has taught me about trading over the past 18 months. He has been a trader for 17 years and trades Currencies, Stocks (Options), Commodities and uses the same strategy regardless of the instrument.

At the time I did not know, however they are a trend follower so from day 1, that’s what I have also been taught…. and when I look at things now I don’t understand why everyone isn’t a trend follower (music to your ears) as it makes 100% complete sense to me.

I guess I am writing to you to say, YES! Someone can be taught from zero experience in the financial markets to become and be taught to be a trend follower. The firs thing my mentor told me to do was read Jesse Livermore’s books which I have done. Over the past 18 months, I have read those books, found new mentors (yourself included) joined Twitter to follow you guys and paper traded for 12 months.

I’m not a rash, spur of the moment guy, and I think that’s why Trend Following appeals to me, I’ve read and listened to many many people considered to be successful traders in this area and really taken my time to understand and learn about the markets and more importantly how to be a successful trader/trend follower.

I just wanted to reach out and say YES, from an absolute novice with no experience you can be taught to be a trend follower, and I think it’s the only way to trade! Your book has been ordered from Amazon (New Version) along with TurtleTrader, Market Wizards and Trading in the Zone to accompany my 3 Livermore books and my wall of mentors:

Jesse Livermore
Michael Brown (work colleague)
Michael Covel
LMT978 – Larry
Stephen Burns
Rayner Teo

A few others, however I’ve come across these guys from your site and interviews (thank you).

I look forward to becoming an extremely successful trader and one day would love to be interviewed for you audience as a very successful trader that no-one had heard of!

[Name]

Thanks for the nice words!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.