Historical Events When Trend Following Wins Big: 500 Years of Financial History

“Cut short your losses, and let your profits run on.”

–David Ricardo, legendary political economist

Source: The Great Metropolis, 1838

The first trend follower

Ricardo’s golden rules

David Ricardo (19 April 1772 – 11 September 1823) was an English political economist, often credited with systematising economics, and was one of the most influential of the classical economists, along with Thomas Malthus, Adam Smith, and John Stuart Mill. According to an 1838 book, The Great Metropolis, Volume 2 (PDF), Ricardo had certain golden rules:

“As I have mentioned the name of Mr. Ricardo, I may observe that he amassed his immense fortune by a scrupulous attention to what he called his own three golden rules, the observance of which he used to press on his private friends. These were, “Never refuse an option when you can get it, cut short your losses, let your profits run on.” By cutting short one’s losses, Mr. Ricardo meant that when a member had made a purchase of stock, and prices were falling, he ought to resell immediately. And by letting one’s profits run on he meant, that when a member possessed stock, and prices were raising, he ought not to sell until prices had reached their highest, and were beginning again to fall. These are, indeed, golden rules, and may be applied with advantage to innumerable other transactions than those connected with the Stock Exchange.”

Said another way: TREND FOLLOWING.

David Ricardo
David Ricardo: The First Trend Follower
Trend Following Personified
Trend Following Personified

The research

The big WHY trend following works:

That is detail no college professor ever includes in a syllabus. The black swan…

The Black Swan
The Black Swan

500 years

Bubbles Visualized

Blowing Bubbles
Blowing Bubbles

A selection of market bubbles visualized.

Tullip

Tulip Mania

Wageningen UR Library, Special Collections

John Law

Mississippi Bubble

Leemage/Corbis

South Seas

South Sea Bubble

The Trustees of the British Museum

Latin American Debt Crisis

John Carter Brown Library of Brown University

Chrysler Building

Great Depression

LCDM Universal History Archive/Getty Images

Black MondayBlack Monday

Black Monday

The Great RecessionBen Bernanke

The Great Recession

Bubbles on Top of Bubbles
Bubbles on Top of Bubbles
And when bubbles pop and big events hit--it gets crazy time!
And when bubbles pop and big events hit–it gets crazy time!

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