You say you want a revolution…

From the Business Insider a quote from David Rosenberg:

“If I was going to publish a bullish report on the U.S. economy, it certainly wouldn’t be based on consumption, employment or housing. It would be based on innovation, patents, and the likelihood that the U.S. is embarking on a manufacturing renaissance of sorts — partly reflecting the new permanently higher level of energy prices, which has negatively affected globalization, years of U.S. dollar depreciation, which has helped act as a protective tariff for local producers as well as a major competitive boost. Remember how aviation technology accelerated dramatically in the 1930s depression? Nothing is to say that we can’t see major advances in coming years in energy, medical and transportation technologies even as the economy continues to struggle with expunging all the debt and spending excesses of the last cycle. I have no problem with reports that are bullish on specific themes but at the same time I strongly feel that we should treat reports that shamelessly attempt to downplay the very serious and complex headwinds in the U.S. labor and housing markets, with the utmost of skepticism.”

True. There is no innovation on the horizon that could possibly come close to the internet and wireless. That’s done. Everyone can easily imagine the future of where those go (read: smaller and faster; *yawn*). What will make an iPhone in 5 years revolutionary over today’s version? Nothing. Seriously, mobile technology will allow everyone to be an on the go porn producer who can chat at all times while playing video games. Yawn again. Worse yet? The internet is arbing away “jobs” at a blinding pace. The genie is out and automation will keep on keeping on the elimination of human capital. There is the rub: no innovation and the internet on the other side of the ledger pushing people out of ‘typical’ cradle-to-grave-work-for-the-man jobs (see: Seth Godin’s ‘Linchpin’). So millions are left waiting for government types to blow the all safe horn (read: race back to the malls and buy stuff), apparently ignoring that the politicians are using unprecedented policy tools to keep it all afloat.

The market needs to be allowed to function without the manipulation of the record spending invisible hand. Not going to happen? Then the downside at some point will be far greater. Taking the pain now would be so much better. Just pull the band-aid off, right?

2 thoughts on “You say you want a revolution…

  1. The meltdown really started earlier in the decade with Sarbanes-Oxley which pretty much killed the IPO pipeline with it’s stifling regulatory requirements. It pretty much killed the volume of small businesses that would of gone public. Now the clowns in Washington pile on more regulations and taxes and think it’s going to create more jobs. I’m not optimistic that we’ll see any decrease in unemployment/underemployment for many years to come.

  2. Just to second Mike & Jeff, & add:
    realistically, the earliest direct causes began with establishing the Fed 1910-14, then Hoover/FDR intervention + jawboning to raise money wages over real wages, for politically favored groups.
    Pollutes natural economic selection, gets voters addicted.
    Voluntary withdrawal unlikely without total pain.
    Grateful for Turtle/Trend Following, to have a path through disasters.

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