Super Cycle Indicators

Feedback in:

“Hi Michael, I recently came across your writings about turtle trading and was quite impressed by it. I have already called for the book and am quite excited about it. I would like to share with you an indicator that I’ve developed which gives timings for super cycles in the US 2 Yr Treasury, SP 500 and Gold. I would appreciate if you could have a look at it. In the last 12 years we have only 6 times that the indicator has come to the watermark 800 level, from where we anticipate a trend. The indicator signal time is markets as red boxes and the larger boxes are for the complete moves. The time line on the indicator chart are replicated on the price chart, the results are phenomenal. We’ve been able to catch the most important trends in the US 2 Yr Treasury market and ride it. Not mentioning the predictive value of this indicator on the treasury prices, interest rates, the economy and its effects on the stock markets. We are once again at a critical level in terms of the US 2 Yr Treasury. Your reading this email and your specific views would be highly appreciated.”

I have no expertise in ‘predictive’ technical indicators.

7 thoughts on “Super Cycle Indicators

  1. It’s amazing that people say they have read your material and then send you an email like the one you have shared. Richard Dennis’ quote that he could publish his rules in the Wall Street Journal but no would follow them, might be more true now than ever.

  2. “In the last 12 years we have only 6 times…”

    Sounds like (statistically-insignificant) data mining to me.. Very powerful stuff, great predictive power… for past data 😉

  3. I believe this is the same person who wrote Ed Seykota on his “FAQ” page, June 1-14.

  4. I am not religious for many reasons, but even in Islam, prediction is thoroughly forbidden … just a fun fact!

    Maybe prediction is the act of convincing my self that something is more certain than other probabilities, therefore making my self feel safer by not looking at the wide range of probabilities, only looking at the favorable one.

    This creates a problem because I wouldn’t have an action plan for the ignored set of probabilities, that is why looking at the past teaches us the wide set of probabilities, but it doesn’t predict the future.

    Maybe people don’t like to lose, but I think this is normal, the problem is when we try to block the feeling of loss and not its generator, this converts the conservative into a risk taker without knowing!

  5. This e-mail (though I respect everyone’s opinion) is a clear example of why the majority of traders fail in the long run. Most of the traders are looking for that holy grail through external factors like ‘that one killer setup’. The true holy grail lies in the person himself, through the acceptance that the market is unknown. The real winning mentality is retrieved through the steady use of high PROBABILITY, because there is no such thing as high CERTAINTY.

  6. In the past Michael has accurately compared trading to playing poker. Would this guy go into a tournament and go all-in because his cycle predicted that his next hand was going to be a winner before the cards are dealt??

    I don’t think so…

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