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5 thoughts on “Maybe He Will Be Right, But Can’t Trade on This

  1. What I find interesting is how these two journalists and Hussmann in the article below belittle trend following. “Oh everybody is JUST following short term trends, they are not paying attention to the fundamentals”. They act as weif fundamental investing or economic were some holy grail and trend-following were just another word for hot money gambling that is doomed to fail. Ridiculous.

  2. what an absurd comment. there isnt an 80% probability of anything happening that includes non-certainty. there is a 99.99% chance the sun will rise this morning… but beyond that, it is a ridiculous comment. what will be interesting is to watch the performance of his fund next year, assuming he positions for this crash. if the market is down big, he should be up big… and if the market is up, he should lose… and if up big, he should lose big.

  3. Who knows. Who cares. It makes for exciting conversation, but does not help you develop and follow a system. You want to get big? Get in the gym. Otherwise you will always be “starting on Monday.”

  4. Yes – it is impossible to trade on “information” like this. It is the typical “analysis” pumped out 24×7 by business media and it is pure fluff with no substance.

    Having said that, Hussman’s Funds have a very good track record. From what I’ve read he definitely takes an empirical approach when developing his strategies, and does consider market trends as part of the portfolio management process.

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