Follow the Leader?

James Altucher writes about investing in China with an example stock to consider:

First on the list is CNOOC Ltd. (CEO), also known as China National Offshore Oil, which pays a yield of 3.6%. It has a P/E of 9.4 and a PEG of 0.32. Cash in the bank totals $4.6 billion. It’s understandable to be worried that companies in communist China can be shut down at a moment’s notice. But this is a company with $4.6 billion in the bank, trading at a tiny multiple of earnings and returning cash to shareholders. With such a low P/E, steady earnings growth, dividend growth, and a low PEG, I can easily see the stock doubling by year-end. SAC Capital also owns CNOOC. The hedge fund, run by Stevie Cohen, has returned over 30% per year since it started in the early 90s. And that’s after taking up to a 50% performance fee. This means that gross returns before fees (which is all we care about since we’re just piggybacking, not investing in the fund) often exceeds 60 percent. Citadel Associates also owns it. This fund is run by Ken Griffin, who started it out of his Harvard dorm room when he was 19 with a $100,000 investment. Now Citadel has over $15 billion under management. A recent New York Times profile speculated if Citadel would be the next Goldman Sachs. One of my favorite hedge funds, Renaissance Technologies, also owns CNOOC. Renaissance is very quant driven and only hires Ph.D.s but that formula has been very successful. Currently, Renaissance is are out raising a $100 billion hedge fund, which would be by far the largest ever. My theory is they are buying every stock that has a lot of cash in the bank and a low P/E ratio. CNOOC certainly qualifies.

Three billionaire hedge fund managers supposedly own this stock. That means what?

1. How does anyone really know these hedge fund pros own anything? And if you did, are they going to call you when it is time to sell?
2. Calling Simons’ fund, Renaissance, a favorite is hardly difficult. Everyone knows Simons is in a different league.

My point? Think critically…please!

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